Purdue’s Path to a No. 1 Seed Tightens After Road Loss, But Boilermakers Still in Control
The Big Ten is a battlefield this season, and the fight for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament is heating up-not just nationally, but within the conference itself. With four teams currently ranked in the top 10 and Illinois knocking on the door at No. 11, the race to the top is as tight as it’s been in years.
Whoever survives the gauntlet and comes out with the Big Ten crown is almost guaranteed a top seed come March. And depending on how things shake out, the runner-up might have a strong enough résumé to sneak in too.
That’s what makes Purdue’s latest loss frustrating, but far from devastating.
The Boilermakers let one slip away on the road against a tournament-caliber UCLA squad desperate for a signature win. It stings, sure-especially considering Purdue had chances to close it out-but it’s not the kind of loss that derails a season. Donovan Dent and the Bruins brought the energy, and in a game that had the feel of March, they made just enough plays to pull it out.
The reality? No one’s running the table in the Big Ten this year.
Every contender is going to drop a few. That’s just the nature of the beast in this conference.
The key for Purdue is how it responds-starting with Saturday’s home showdown against Illinois. That one?
Circle it. It’s not just a resume-builder; it’s a must-win if the Boilermakers want to stay in the driver’s seat.
Where Purdue Stands Now
Despite the setback, Purdue remains in a strong position. The Boilermakers are still projected as a No. 2 seed in the Bracket Matrix consensus, and their body of work speaks for itself. They’ve already picked up several Tier 1 wins-exactly the kind of victories the selection committee loves to see in March.
Here’s a closer look at the résumé:
Tier 1 Wins (KenPom):
- Away: Alabama (17), Wisconsin (40), USC (46)
- Neutral: Texas Tech (19), Auburn (30)
- Home: Iowa (20)
Tier 2 Wins (KenPom):
- Home: Washington (51), Akron (58)
- Neutral: Memphis (92)
Tier 1 Wins (NET):
- Away: Alabama (19), Wisconsin (39), USC (48)
- Neutral: Texas Tech (17), Auburn (34)
- Home: Iowa (20)
Tier 2 Wins (NET):
- Home: Akron (55), Washington (60)
Bad Losses: None. That’s crucial. Purdue hasn’t dropped a game to a team outside the top 100 in either NET or KenPom, which keeps their profile clean.
What’s Ahead
To stay in the mix for a top seed, Purdue needs to hold serve at Mackey Arena-where they’ve been dominant-and pick off a few more road wins. Three or four more away from home should do the trick, especially with how bunched the top 10 is right now. The margin between a 1 and 2 seed is razor-thin, and with more Tier 1 opportunities on the horizon, the Boilermakers still control their own destiny.
Tracking Purdue’s Opponents
The strength of Purdue’s schedule is also working in their favor, with several of their past opponents continuing to build strong seasons. Here’s a snapshot of how those teams are faring:
- Alabama (NET 19, KenPom 17): The Tide edged out Oklahoma in a tight one and now get a breather before hosting Tennessee. They’re right in the thick of the SEC race.
- Texas Tech (NET 17, KenPom 19): The Red Raiders are rolling, fresh off wins over Utah, BYU, and Baylor.
They’re just a half-game back in a loaded Big 12.
- Akron (NET 55, KenPom 58): The Zips are chasing an undefeated Miami (OH) team in the MAC. If both stay hot, a two-bid league scenario isn’t out of the question.
- Memphis (NET 108, KenPom 92): The Tigers are quietly climbing in the American, sitting just behind Florida Atlantic. They’ve won four of five and are trending up.
- Auburn (NET 34, KenPom 30): A road loss at Missouri didn’t help, but wins over South Carolina and Ole Miss keep this a quality neutral-site win for Purdue.
- Iowa State (NET 6, KenPom 5): The Cyclones dropped one at Cincinnati but bounced back with a statement win over UCF. They remain a top-tier win on anyone’s résumé.
- Wisconsin (NET 39, KenPom 40): Still a solid road win for Purdue, and the Badgers continue to hover in that Tier 1 range.
- USC (NET 48, KenPom 46): Another valuable road win, even if the Trojans have been inconsistent.
- Washington (NET 60, KenPom 51): Still holding in Tier 2, giving Purdue a bit more depth to its home wins.
- Oakland (NET 110, KenPom 110): The Golden Grizzlies are near the top of the Horizon League, but both their conference losses came at the hands of Wright State.
- Evansville (NET 281, KenPom 286): Not much to see here. The Purple Aces are struggling in the MVC.
- Eastern Illinois (NET 309, KenPom 314): A non-factor in Purdue’s résumé, though they did pick up a non-D1 win recently.
- Kent State (NET 146, KenPom 148): The Golden Flashes are third in the MAC after a thrilling win over Toledo and a tough OT loss to Miami (OH).
- Marquette (NET 142, KenPom 123): Despite a rough stretch, they finally broke through with an overtime win against Providence. Still, they’re 0-11 against top-tier teams.
Final Word
Purdue’s loss at UCLA was a bump in the road, not a derailment. The Boilermakers have the depth, the wins, and the opportunity to push for a top seed.
The key now is consistency-especially at home-and capitalizing on the remaining Tier 1 chances. Saturday’s matchup with Illinois looms large, but this team still has everything to play for.