ESPN Makes Surprising Indiana Prediction

As Indiana University football gears up for the 2026 season, fans are buzzing with anticipation. The team, despite experiencing significant roster changes, has landed in a promising spot in ESPN’s SP+ rankings, crafted by the analytical mind of Bill Connelly. IU is sitting pretty at No. 5, a testament to their potential this year.

Here’s how the top ten shakes out:

1. Ohio State
2. Oregon
3. Notre Dame
4. Georgia
5. Indiana
6. Texas
7. Texas Tech
8. Miami
9. Texas A&M
10. LSU

With an SP+ rating of 24.5, Indiana is projected to outpace an average college football team by that margin on a neutral field. This ranking places IU’s offense at No. 9, defense at No. 6, and special teams at No. 22 among the 138 FBS teams this season. These stats highlight a well-rounded squad ready to compete at the highest levels.

SP+ is often likened to the KenPom of college football, offering a predictive measure that focuses on the sustainable and predictable aspects of the game. It's not about where teams will land in the AP Top 25 but rather about their potential performance based on current data.

A glance back shows IU was ranked No. 90 in the 2024 preseason SP+ and climbed to No. 23 last year. Connelly’s model incorporates four key variables, with a notable update this year:

1. Returning Production: IU ranks No. 52 overall, with the offense at No. 69 and defense at No. 39, reflecting the impact of roster changes and transfers.
2. Recent History: Evaluates the team’s performance in recent seasons.
3. Recent High School Recruiting: Although less emphasized now, this factor still plays a role in assessing team potential.
4. Coaching Change Effects: This year’s model highlights the potential for significant improvement following coaching changes, as seen in Indiana’s 2024 turnaround.

In the Big Ten, after IU, USC, Michigan, and Penn State are also making waves, ranked at 13, 14, and 17, respectively.

Here’s Indiana’s 2026 schedule, with opponents’ SP+ rankings:

• vs. North Texas (109)
• vs. Howard (NR)
• vs. Western Kentucky (86)
• vs. Northwestern (49)
• at Rutgers (62)
• at Nebraska (37)
• vs. Ohio State (1)
• at Michigan (14)
• vs.

Minnesota (45)

• vs.

USC (13)

• at Washington (21)
• vs. Purdue (82)

While the Big Ten boasts three teams in the top five, the SEC still leads in overall conference strength according to SP+. Indiana fans have plenty to look forward to as the season approaches, with a team poised to make a significant impact.