Back in 2023, the Portland Trail Blazers faced a pivotal decision: stick with their franchise icon Damian Lillard or pivot to a new era with Scoot Henderson, the promising guard from the G League Ignite. The Blazers chose the latter, a move that sparked plenty of debate.
Henderson, once seen as a potential perennial All-Star alongside Victor Wembanyama, has faced a rocky road. While Wembanyama has turned the San Antonio Spurs into a powerhouse, Henderson has struggled with injuries and inconsistent play, particularly from the perimeter.
His early comparisons to players like Dennis Smith and Killian Hayes seemed apt, as his shooting woes made the offense one-dimensional.
However, since returning from a hamstring injury in February, Henderson has shown signs of growth. Initially rusty, he started to find his rhythm by March, putting together an impressive offensive stretch.
His scoring is up, but the real story lies in his improved shot selection and mechanics. With a true shooting percentage of 55.3, he's now hitting league average for a guard, thanks to three key improvements:
- Three-Point Accuracy: Henderson has focused on catch-and-shoot opportunities rather than difficult pull-ups. After a tough February shooting 24% from three, he's now hitting 45% in March.
- Rim Finishing: He's using his body more effectively to create angles, boosting his rim field goal percentage to 60.5%, well above the positional average.
- Free Throw Attempts: Attacking with purpose has led to a career-high 3.5 free throw attempts per game.
His standout performance came on March 8th against the Pacers, where he dropped 28 points, 3 rebounds, and 6 assists in just 26 minutes. This game showcased his ability to combine volume with efficiency, hitting shots both off the dribble and from the catch.
An Evolving Offensive Profile
Henderson's evolution isn't just about making more shots; it's about smarter shot selection. He's shifted to a modern guard style, focusing on three-pointers and orchestrated drives, while cutting down on low-value long twos. His usage remains high as a primary creator, but his efficiency per possession has improved, a crucial development for a lead guard.
The game against the Pacers highlighted his new approach, mixing pull-up jumpers with catch-and-shoot looks, and driving effectively to create kickouts. This isn't just a hot streak; it's a sustainable offensive strategy, provided he stays healthy.
Impact on Team Spacing
Henderson's improved shooting has ripple effects across the team. Defenses now have to adjust, opening up opportunities for teammates like Donovan Clingan.
Off-ball actions are more effective as defenders can't fully commit to stopping Henderson's drives. Teams go under screens less often, and when they do, Henderson is ready to shoot, forcing defenses to fight over the top and giving Blazers' shooters cleaner looks.
His catch-and-shoot improvement also transforms him from a ball-dominant player to a legitimate spacer, crucial for late-clock situations and when playing alongside other creators.
Post-Season Implications
The Blazers are on the fringes of the postseason race, where small improvements can have significant impacts. Henderson's March shooting surge doesn't make them contenders, but it does enhance their offensive efficiency and clutch play.
- Offensive Rating: With Henderson playing efficiently, Portland's half-court offense is much more effective, especially when key players are off the floor.
- Clutch Possessions: A guard who can create shots or get to the line late in games is invaluable for a team in tight contests.
- Scouting Adjustments: If teams view Henderson as a perimeter threat, it changes how they defend the entire team.
In a competitive Western Conference, the difference between a struggling offense and a respectable one can determine postseason hopes. Henderson’s recent performance suggests Portland can reach that level when his shot is falling and his decision-making is sharp.
More importantly, this reframes the long-term outlook. Instead of questioning his shooting ability, the focus shifts to how often he can maintain this level and what the team needs to do to support him. This is a much more optimistic scenario for a rebuilding franchise.