Portland’s first trip to Phoenix this season comes with an odd twist: the market is treating this rematch like a much tighter game than the one that started the year.
That opener wasn’t close. The Blazers rolled the Suns 124-83 on opening night, jumping out to a 21-0 lead and setting the tone immediately.
Three weeks later, Portland is still humming. Even with Ja Morant sidelined by a hamstring injury, the Blazers have kept winning, and they arrive at Wednesday’s game at Mortgage Matchup Center at 5-1 with a perfect 4-0 road record.
Their latest statement came in Denver. Three nights after Morant got hurt against Memphis, Portland went in as 4.5-point underdogs, beat Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets 118-110, and again showed that the absence hasn’t knocked them off course. The model had thought that number was too big, and Portland backed it up on the floor.
Phoenix, meanwhile, is still searching for steadier support around Devin Booker. He scored 26 points in Monday’s loss to Golden State before fouling out late, but the Suns haven’t found enough consistency beyond him.
Portland is dealing with injuries too. Morant will miss at least four weeks, and Shaedon Sharpe is out with a meniscus injury.
That keeps Scoot Henderson in a larger role, and the model has him at 16 points. It also sees Deni Avdija as the engine of the offense, projecting him for 25 points, seven rebounds and eight assists.
The projected box score also has Damian Lillard at 21 points, four rebounds and five assists; Jrue Holiday at 16 points, four rebounds and five assists; Toumani Camara at 12 points, four rebounds and two assists; and Henderson at 16 points, three rebounds and three assists. On the Phoenix side, the model lists Booker at 25 points, four rebounds and six assists, Dillon Brooks at 18 points, four rebounds and two assists, Miles Bridges at 16 points, six rebounds and three assists, Jalen Green at 15 points, four rebounds and three assists, and Collin Gillespie at 11 points, three rebounds and four assists.
The simulations point to a 116-112 Portland win and give the Blazers a 63.6% chance to take it. That’s a bigger edge than the betting market is showing.
Portland is listed at -133 on the moneyline, while Phoenix sits at +147. On Kalshi, the Blazers are 59¢ to win and the Suns are 44¢ to win.
The spread is tighter. Portland is -3.5 at -104, Phoenix +3.5 at -110, and the Kalshi market has “Blazers win by over 3.5” at 51¢ yes and 55¢ no. The model gives Portland a 51.7% chance to cover, so that side is only a small lean.
The total is 228.5, but the model lands right on 228, which makes that one a pass. Kalshi has the over at 52¢ and the under at 55¢, both above fair value. The team totals don’t offer much help either.
For Portland, the clearest angle remains the straight-up win. The model says backing the Blazers through Suns “No” at 57¢ is the best play on the board, with the moneyline itself priced a little higher. The spread can be added for a bigger payout, but the edge there is thin.
Portland has already shown it can beat Phoenix badly, and it has kept winning without Morant. The market still seems slower to catch up than the Blazers themselves.
In Other News...
Blazers Keep Getting Better News From The Damian Lillard Trade
The Damian Lillard trade keeps looking better for Portland, not just because of what the Blazers received in the deal, but because of how the rest of the transaction has played out since. Milwaukee has been trying to navigate an early-season slump after parting with Giannis Antetokounmpo, and the ripple effects of the Lillard move have only added to the sense that Portland came out ahead in a major way.
For the Blazers, the return was always about more than one player, and the draft capital attached to the deal has given the franchise more flexibility as it tries to build forward. Milwaukees decision to waive Lillard to create cap room also underscored how much long-term financial maneuvering came with the trade, leaving Portland with a package that keeps gaining value as the Bucks continue to sort through the fallout. [Read more 🡒]
Sidy Cissoko Is Quietly Solving A Blazers Problem Joe Cronin Bet On
Joe Cronins decision to stand pat on the wing after the offseason has looked a little less risky with each passing game. The Trail Blazers did not go out and chase a replacement for the players they lost, trusting the roster already in place, and Sidy Cissoko has started to look like the kind of internal answer that can make that bet work. The 22-year-old has carved out a real role off the bench, bringing a steadier offensive touch and the kind of defensive versatility Portland can use in a rotation that still has some sorting out to do.
Through the first six games, Cissoko has given the Blazers something beyond a temporary hot stretch. His shooting has improved, his activity on the other end has fit what the team needs, and the minutes he is getting do not feel accidental. Portland is intentionally making room for him, which says plenty about how the staff views his place in the rotation and how much confidence there is that this two-way impact can hold up. [Read more 🡒]
Deni Avdija Already Faced One Big Blazers Concern After Ja Morant Trade
Deni Avdija did not wait long to address the biggest question hanging over his place in Portland after the Ja Morant trade. With the Blazers suddenly built around two All-Star guards, Avdija went straight to head coach Micah Nori looking for clarity on how his role would fit into the new setup, a fair concern for a player who has become an important part of the rotation.
Nori laid out how Avdijas chances to contribute could actually grow even in a backcourt crowded with star power, and the early returns have backed that up. Avdija has kept scoring efficiently to start the season, while teammates Damian Lillard and Morant have both spoken positively about what he brings, giving Portland at least one encouraging sign as it sorts through the ripple effects of the trade. [Read more 🡒]