The Portland Trail Blazers are heading into the new season with a real chance to move up, but ESPN’s projection still keeps them in a familiar lane.
ESPN has Portland finishing 43-39, which would be one win better than last season’s 42-39 mark. That number comes with a big reset behind the scenes, too.
ESPN noted, "Portland has undergone an even more dramatic transition. Interim coach Tiago Splitter parted ways with the team after guiding it to a 42-39 record.
Chauncey Billups was suspended and is now coaching the Bulls. New Blazers owner Tom Dundon hired longtime Timberwolves assistant coach Micah Nori and ruffled feathers in the coaching community by offering only one guaranteed year on Nori's contract,"
The roster looks different as well, and ESPN pointed to the headliners at the center of it all: "Nori will be commanding a new-look team featuring Ja Morant, who has played just 79 games over the past three seasons after back-to-back All-Star nods in 2022 and 2023, and franchise icon Damian Lillard, who missed all of last season (save for a triumphant 3-point contest) while rehabbing an Achilles tear."
That kind of talent gives Portland a higher ceiling than a one-game bump would suggest. The Blazers have made meaningful roster improvements, and Morant and Lillard give them a path to being more dangerous if the health breaks right. Even so, the projection model is clearly treating them as a team that still has to earn its place.
The Western Conference picture ESPN laid out includes only five 50-win teams: the San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, and Minnesota Timberwolves. Portland sits in the next group with the Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, and Utah Jazz as possible play-in teams.
That’s where the Blazers are expected to land for now. They may have improved, but not enough to jump into the conference’s top tier, and not enough to make a 10-win leap look likely. Even with the upgrades, ESPN’s view is that Portland probably won’t be better than any of those top five teams.
Still, 43 wins may undersell what this group can do. If Morant and Lillard both stay healthy and contribute, Portland has a real shot to push beyond that number. A finish somewhere in the 45-to-50 range looks like the kind of target that’s ambitious without drifting into fantasy.
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