Arch Manning’s season at Texas has gone sideways fast enough to spark a different kind of conversation: what if he doesn’t follow the usual path after 2026? With the Longhorns already sitting on two losses before the end of October and Manning struggling, the chatter has shifted from expectations to possibilities.
Steve Sarkisian added to that noise after Texas’ loss to Florida, saying he would give an uptick to Manning’s backup, KJ Lacey. A full benching still looks unlikely, but the source of the buzz is obvious. If Manning keeps this level of play through the season, speculation could grow that he skips the 2027 NFL Draft and stays in college for another year.
If that happens and he enters the transfer portal, a few programs stand out right away.
LSU is the cleanest fit on the board. Manning played four years of high school football in Louisiana at Isidore Newman in New Orleans, and the school is just 82 miles southeast of Baton Rouge.
He was born and raised in Louisiana, so the homecoming angle sells itself. LSU head coach Lane Kiffin also carries real credibility in quarterback development, having turned Jaxson Dart into a first-round NFL Draft pick and helped uncover Trinidad Chambliss from DII Ferris State, who is expected to be a top signal-caller picked for 2027.
Sam Leavitt has not played well this season, and Kiffin reportedly had other transfer targets in front of him in Chambliss, Brandon Sorsby and Washington’s Demond Williams. For Manning, a reset close to home under an offensive coach like Kiffin would be hard to ignore.
Georgia belongs in the mix for a different reason. Kirby Smart has usually leaned toward quarterbacks he recruits and develops himself, but the Bulldogs were one of Manning’s three finalists out of high school.
Smart has also dipped into the portal for quarterback help, bringing in Oregon transfer Bryson Beaver this year and Jaden Rashada in 2024 as backups to Gunner Stockton. Stockton is a fifth-year senior, and backup Ryan Puglisi has completed 36 passes for 413 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions across his last two seasons.
Manning would bring real game experience, which could matter even if it would not fit Georgia’s usual quarterback model.
Ole Miss has a built-in storyline too. Pete Golding already beat Lane Kiffin once this season when Ole Miss won 32-24, and getting Manning would be another shot at that rivalry by proxy.
Golding also kept Trinidad Chambliss from following Kiffin to LSU. Chambliss is headed to the NFL after this season, and Manning would also be walking into a place with family ties - his grandfather Archie and uncle Eli both played in Oxford.
That matters. Current backup Deuce Knight, who transferred from Auburn this offseason, would be his main competition for the job, though Manning’s experience could give him the edge.
Oregon is another option if Manning wants a fresh start in a quarterback room that could open up. Dan Lanning has had a tougher year there than expected.
Starter Dante Moore is expected to miss a second straight game after leaving the UCLA game on Oct. 10 with a concussion. In his place, Oregon has rotated Dylan Raiola and Brock Thomas, and neither has separated himself enough for Lanning to name a starter yet for this week’s game against Illinois, though Raiola appears to have the edge.
Moore is expected to head to the NFL in 2027, Raiola is a junior this season, and the room behind him looks wide open. Oregon would be a long way from home for Manning, but Lanning has already shown he can attract quarterbacks through the portal, with Moore arriving from UCLA and Dillon Gabriel transferring in from Oklahoma in 2024.
Indiana and Miami, meanwhile, feel like names to keep in the back pocket - but only if Manning gets a lot better. Both programs have landed high-end portal quarterbacks, including Cam Ward and Carson Beck at Miami and Fernando Mendoza and Josh Hoover at Indiana.
Even so, the source makes the case that Manning would need a stronger body of work before either school would seriously jump in. Beck and Hoover both put up multiple 3,000-yard seasons, while Mendoza threw for 4,712 yards and 30 touchdowns over two years at Cal.
Manning’s numbers are somewhat comparable, but the tape has not been consistent enough yet, especially with 20 turnovers across his two seasons and rough outings in losses to Ohio State, Florida and Georgia last season, plus Oklahoma and Florida so far this year. If he finishes the season strong, though, both Indiana and Miami could absolutely enter the picture.
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