The Steelers are entering 2026 with the same question that has hovered over the franchise for years: is being solid enough when solid keeps you out of true contention?
Pittsburgh has rattled off three straight 10-7 seasons and hasn’t posted a losing record under Mike Tomlin, but that steady floor has come with a ceiling that’s been impossible to ignore. The Steelers haven’t been viewed as a real title threat in a decade, and they’ve dropped their last six postseason games. That kind of run is what pushed management to make a change, moving on from Tomlin and hiring former Cowboys and Packers coach Mike McCarthy.
Even with the coaching switch, the betting market isn’t buying a major leap. Pittsburgh’s win total sits at 8.5, and the UNDER is juiced to -130, which carries a 56.52% implied probability that the Steelers finish with their first losing season since 2003.
A lot of the attention naturally lands on McCarthy, but the bigger storyline is Aaron Rodgers, who is back for another NFL season at 42. Rodgers wasn’t disastrous for Pittsburgh last year, but he was nowhere near his peak form.
He averaged 207.6 passing yards per game and posted a 94.8 rating. A notable bounce-back would be a surprise unless the coaching situation was the real issue all along.
There is at least one obvious comfort point: Rodgers will be working with McCarthy again, the coach he won a Super Bowl with in 2010-2011.
The schedule doesn’t do Pittsburgh many favors, either. Because the Steelers won the AFC North last season, they’re stuck with a first-place schedule.
Their slate is still rated the 17th-easiest in the league based on opponent projected win totals, but that’s a much tougher draw than what their division rivals face. The Bengals have the second-easiest schedule, the Ravens the fifth-easiest, and the Browns the sixth-easiest.
Beyond Rodgers, the roster still looks like a collection of good-but-not-great pieces. That’s the real issue here.
Until Pittsburgh gets a young, competent quarterback and adds more youth on defense, it’s hard to trust the ceiling. This feels like a team that could finally push management toward a full rebuild, and the UNDER on 8.5 wins is the side to back.
In Other News...
Three Steelers Enter Week 2 With Their Roster Hopes Suddenly Slipping
The Steelers came out of their preseason opener against Green Bay looking like a team with some real momentum, but not every player in camp followed that script. Week 1 gave Pittsburgh a chance to sort through the bottom of the roster, and for a few players, the first exhibition game only sharpened the pressure heading into this weeks meeting with the Jets.
Kaleb Johnson, Riley Nowakowski and Esezi Otomewo all need a cleaner showing to keep their roster hopes alive. Each has work to do before Week 2, and with competition tightening in camp, the next opportunity matters more than ever for players trying to stick on the final group. [Read more 🡒]
Steelers Turn Jets Game Into A Real Quarterback Audition
With Aaron Rodgers already signaling that he doesnt see much value in preseason snaps, Mike McCarthy is using the Steelers game against the Jets as something different: a closer look at the young quarterbacks. The coach said Rodgers will sit out the matchup, while Mason Rudolph, despite drawing praise for his recent play, will also remain on the bench as Pittsburgh shifts the spotlight toward the next wave of passers.
That leaves Will Howard and Drew Allar to get the first shot in a game that is more about evaluation than the scoreboard. For a team still sorting through its quarterback depth, the chance to watch both rookies operate in live action should tell the staff more than another series from the veteran group would. [Read more 🡒]
Steelers Quarterback Battle May Be Telling Us More About Will Howard
The Steelers quarterback picture has started to look less like a simple competition and more like a long evaluation of who might fit as the franchise answer down the road. Drew Allars preseason work has turned heads, but the deeper intrigue may be centered on Will Howard, the second-year passer whose development has earned positive notice from Mike McCarthy and added another layer to how Pittsburgh is thinking about its depth chart.
With no roster decisions announced yet, the debate is not just about who backs up whom, but how many quarterbacks the Steelers might be willing to carry while they sort out the future. Howards progress has become part of that conversation, and the fact that Pittsburgh could consider keeping multiple passers around only raises the stakes as the team tries to balance immediate stability with a longer-term search for its next starter. [Read more 🡒]