The Steelers’ 2026 outlook is already splitting the people who cover them, and the divide starts with one simple question: does the change from Mike Tomlin to Mike McCarthy keep Pittsburgh’s remarkable run alive, or does it finally snap?
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell sees a team that can still reach the postseason. In his playoff projections released Wednesday, he picked the Steelers as an AFC wild-card team and pointed to McCarthy as a possible boost on offense.
“We'll see just how thoroughly the Steelers are impacted by the departure of Mike Tomlin. Mike McCarthy should offer an offensive coaching upgrade for a team that hasn't really ever replaced Bruce Arians,” Barnwell wrote. “McCarthy isn't exactly the analytics wizard that his initial news conferences in Dallas suggested, but the Steelers were way behind the curve in terms of game management by the time Tomlin finished his run in Pittsburgh.
“A more modern approach might help the Steelers squeeze more out of their roster.”
Barnwell was not sold on Aaron Rodgers getting all the way back to his old level, but he still liked enough pieces on both sides of the ball to keep Pittsburgh in the mix. He highlighted the Steelers’ offensive and defensive lines, along with what he called a potentially “excellent secondary if Joey Porter Jr. is on the field.”
Ray Fittipaldo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette sees the same team through a much different lens. Speaking on The Fan Morning Show, he said the Steelers could wind up under .500, and the schedule is the biggest reason why.
“It’s a first-place schedule. The back half of the schedule, pretty much from mid-October on, is really challenging,” Fittipaldo said. “So, if they don't get off to a good start, it's gonna be an uphill climb.”
That late-season run looks especially rough after Pittsburgh’s mid-November bye. The Steelers will then face the Bengals on Nov. 15, the Eagles on Nov. 22, the Broncos on Nov. 27, the Texans on Dec. 6, the Jaguars on Dec. 14, the Ravens on Dec. 20 and the Panthers at a TBD date. Four of those seven opponents won their divisions in 2025.
Fittipaldo also thinks the coaching transition itself could slow things down. In his view, moving from Tomlin to McCarthy is the kind of organizational shift that may not pay off right away.
“I just think it might take a little bit of time for Mike McCarthy's program to get going here and to get him up to speed where he eventually has to get them,” Fittipaldo said.
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For Pittsburgh fans, the choice is easy to understand and hard to settle. That season was undone in part by injuries to Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, and it ended with a loss to the Broncos in the AFC Divisional Round, leaving the old what-if questions hanging in the air all over again. Tomlins take does not close the case so much as remind everyone why it has lingered for so long. [Read more 🡒]