The Buccaneers head into Sunday’s matchup with a chance to stack wins for the first time this season, and they’ll try to do it at home against a Steelers team that has yet to put together back-to-back victories.
Tampa Bay finally got over the hump last Thursday night, pulling off a 24-16 upset in Dallas for its first win of the year. Before that, the Buccaneers had dropped their first four games, all by one score.
Pittsburgh arrives in the same spot in one key way: chasing a second straight win. That has been the one thing the Steelers haven’t found through five weeks, with wins and losses alternating all season. Both of their defeats have come away from home.
The betting market hasn’t moved much here. The spread opened at -3 and has ticked to -2.5, while the total has slipped from 40.5 to 39.5.
The clearest edge in this game may be Tampa Bay’s defense. Iain MacMillan pointed to that group in his Road to 272 Bets column, noting that the Buccaneers rank sixth in opponent EPA per play and seventh in opponent rush success rate. That matters against a Pittsburgh offense that can be blunted if the ground game gets boxed up.
MacMillan also wasn’t eager to overreact to Tampa Bay’s offensive showing in Dallas. He noted that the Cowboys’ defense can be beaten, and he said Baker Mayfield’s early-season form hasn’t inspired much confidence. In his view, Mayfield is dead last among starting quarterbacks in adjusted EPA per play this season.
That combination is why the under stands out for this matchup. MacMillan said, “Several signs are pointing to this game being a low-scoring affair, so I'm going to bet the UNDER.”
He also said he was tempted to back Tampa Bay as a home underdog. The Steelers are 0-2 on the road with losses in New England and Cleveland, while the Buccaneers come in with momentum from their first win and a little extra rest. Tampa Bay has also already played several low-scoring games, and Pittsburgh can be slowed down too.
For now, the numbers and the matchup both point toward a tighter, lower-scoring afternoon in Tampa.
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That kind of squeeze naturally sends the conversation toward the trade market, and several names are already circulating as possible fits. Jauan Jennings, Calvin Ridley, Jerry Jeudy and Brian Thomas all come with different levels of production, age and cost, but the larger point is obvious: Pittsburgh may need to explore outside help if it wants to stabilize a passing game that has been tested by attrition. [Read more 🡒]
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Steelers Defense Is Responding Fast To Patrick Grahams Latest Tweak
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The immediate payoff showed up in the run game, where Pittsburgh did a much better job keeping Jonathan Taylor under control. There were still some issues behind that, especially in coverage, but the bigger picture was hard to miss: Graham is willing to change his own routine if it helps the defense function better. For a team trying to build something sustainable, that kind of flexibility can matter as much as any single game. [Read more 🡒]