There’s a common thread tying together six of the seven NFL teams currently projected to be over the 2025 salary cap-and it’s not a flattering one. The Cowboys, Chiefs, Vikings, Dolphins, Saints, and Browns all share two things: red ink on the cap sheet and a spot outside the playoff picture.
With just weeks left in the regular season, none of these teams look like serious Super Bowl contenders. That’s not a coincidence.
For the Cowboys, the financial forecast is especially stormy. Sitting a league-worst $47.9 million over the projected cap, Dallas is staring down a critical offseason.
And if they want to dig out of this hole, it starts with one simple rule: don’t double down on mistakes. That brings us to George Pickens.
Pickens, the team’s top in-house free agent, has been invisible in back-to-back games at the most crucial point of the season. Against the Vikings on Sunday night-a 34-26 loss that all but buried Dallas’s playoff hopes-Pickens posted just three catches for 33 yards.
The week before, he was a non-factor in a loss to Detroit. When the Cowboys needed impact plays to stay alive in the postseason race, Pickens didn’t deliver.
That’s a tough sell for a player who might be looking for a contract in the ballpark of CeeDee Lamb’s. And with Lamb already on the books at a premium price, the idea of giving Pickens a similar deal isn’t just risky-it’s regressive. This team is still trying to reset its cap after the Micah Parsons trade to Green Bay, a move that was supposed to create flexibility, not more financial congestion.
Let’s be clear: this isn’t about whether Pickens can play. It’s about whether his production justifies a major investment, especially when the Cowboys have other needs and bigger priorities.
Defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, for example, has made a real impact since arriving from the Jets before the trade deadline. He’s under contract with only $5 million guaranteed left, and he’ll likely want a new deal soon.
But unlike Pickens, Williams has shown he can anchor a defense. That’s a premium skill set-and one worth paying for.
Wide receiver talent, on the other hand, is more replaceable than ever. Just look around the league.
Teams are finding quality production from lesser-known names, often on rookie deals. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are already paying Dak Prescott and Lamb big money.
Adding Pickens to that cap equation would lock up too much of the budget on one side of the ball-something that hasn’t worked well for other teams either.
Take the Bengals. They’ve shelled out massive extensions to Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins, only to miss the playoffs this year.
The Seahawks read the tea leaves early, trading DK Metcalf to Pittsburgh and committing to Jaxon Smith-Njigba instead. The Steelers, for their part, flipped Pickens to Dallas rather than pay both him and Metcalf.
These aren’t coincidences-they’re cautionary tales.
And while it’s true that teams can get creative with the cap-adding void years, restructuring deals, and pushing money down the road-there’s only so much financial gymnastics you can do before the bill comes due. The Chiefs, who are $43.77 million over the cap, can absorb that hit thanks to three Super Bowl titles in the Mahomes era.
That kind of success buys you some grace. The Cowboys, on the other hand, haven’t had that luxury in decades.
Minnesota, the third-most over the cap at $35.9 million, may not even know if J.J. McCarthy is their long-term answer at quarterback.
But on Sunday, their defense made life miserable for Prescott, Lamb, and Pickens. Even with uncertainty under center, the Vikings looked more complete than Dallas.
Yes, the Cowboys racked up 423 total yards in that game-but yards don’t win games, and they certainly don’t justify overpaying for underwhelming production. The smart play here is tagging Pickens, keeping the door open for a trade, and recouping some draft capital. There are teams out there that haven’t committed big money to a receiver and might be willing to take a flier.
Bottom line: Dallas needs to start thinking like a team trying to build sustainably, not one chasing flashy names or doubling down on sunk costs. The league is telling us something loud and clear this season-teams with bloated salary caps and overpaid receivers aren’t winning. The Cowboys would be wise to listen.