The Steelers enter Week 6 sitting at 3-2, and that record tells the story of a team that has steadied itself without making much noise. Now Pittsburgh heads to Tampa Bay with a chance to move to 4-2 against a Buccaneers team that finally got on the board last week by knocking off the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football.
This matchup sets up as a test of whether the Steelers can keep their early momentum going against a Tampa Bay defense that has quietly been one of the best units in the league. The Buccaneers rank sixth in opponent EPA per play and seventh in opponent rush success rate, numbers that matter a lot against a Pittsburgh offense leaning heavily on Jaylen Warren.
Warren has been central to everything the Steelers have done on offense. Through five weeks, he has 410 rushing yards on 70 carries, averaging 5.9 yards per attempt, and he also leads the team with 230 receiving yards on 19 catches. He has been Pittsburgh’s offensive MVP so far, and there’s reason to think that role will keep growing.
The other side of the equation is where the case for a lower-scoring game gets stronger. Tampa Bay’s offense drew plenty of attention after the win over Dallas, but that performance came against a Cowboys defense the source described as one “that a JV team could move the ball against.”
Even if Baker Mayfield is back in the lineup, his early-season production has not inspired much confidence. He is last among starting quarterbacks in adjusted EPA per play this season.
Put those pieces together, and the betting angle points in one direction. The defenses have enough bite, and the Tampa Bay offense has not shown enough consistency to expect a shootout. That’s why the play here is the UNDER.
In Other News...
Steelers Defense Is Trying A New Fix That Has To Work Fast
The Steelers are trying a different look on the defensive sideline this week, shifting coordinator Patrick Graham from the booth to field level for the game against the Colts. Graham had preferred calling games from above, where the better angle helps him sort out offensive personnel and formations, but the change gives him a more direct line to players in real time.
Mike McCarthy pushed for the move because he wants quicker, cleaner communication and faster adjustments during the game. It is the kind of tweak teams make when they think a small operational fix can help in a hurry, though McCarthy is still sorting out whether the change actually delivers the kind of correction Pittsburgh needs. [Read more 🡒]
Steelers Face A Tough Backfield Call Mike McCarthy Can't Avoid
Pittsburghs win over the Colts only sharpened a backfield question that has been building while Rico Dowdle has been sidelined. Mike McCarthy has made it clear he wants a two-back look with Dowdle and Jaylen Warren, but Warren has done plenty to complicate the plan by handling a bigger load and producing as the primary option in Dowdles absence.
The challenge now is less about whether Warren has earned more work and more about how the Steelers sort out touches once Dowdle is back in the mix. Warrens strong showing against Indianapolis gave the staff another reminder that the current rotation is working, which leaves McCarthy with a decision he cannot really dodge as Pittsburgh moves forward. [Read more 🡒]
Steelers Suddenly Have A WR Decision That Could Shape Week 6
The Steelers are staring at another receiver-depth test this week, and the timing is awkward with the group already thinned out. DK Metcalf and Germie Bernard have been holding down the top spots, while rookie Kaden Wetjen and a likely practice squad elevation in Brandon Smith are the next men up as Pittsburgh tries to keep the passing game functional.
With the position group so light, the front office is at least weighing outside help, and several free agents have surfaced as possible answers. Nothing has been finalized yet, but the fact the Steelers are looking at another addition says plenty about how fragile the room has become heading into Week 6. [Read more 🡒]