Week 4 opens with an AFC North game that does not figure to turn into a track meet. The Steelers and Browns have both struggled to generate much offense in 2026, and the betting market has leaned hard into that reality with the total sitting at 38.5 points.
Cleveland comes into Thursday night ranked 23rd in the NFL in EPA/Play, while Pittsburgh sits all the way down at 31st despite its Week 3 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. The Browns have managed back-to-back solid outings in victories over Tampa Bay and Carolina, but the expectation here is still for a tight, low-scoring divisional fight. There is also a chance the Steelers could be short-handed on offense, with Rico Dowdle banged up.
That setup leaves the anytime touchdown market looking thin, but there is still value to be found if you’re willing to shop in the longer-price range. Jaylen Warren is the only player favored to score a touchdown in the game, while several pass catchers are sitting as long shots. At +300 or better, a few names stand out.
Harold Fannin Jr. is one of them. The second-year tight end caught two touchdown passes for Cleveland in Week 3, finishing with a season-high seven receptions on nine targets. Over his last two games, he has drawn 15 targets, and he has started to emerge as a key red-zone option for Watson, who has thrown four touchdowns over the last two weeks.
Pittsburgh has been solid against the pass overall, ranking 11th in EPA/Pass, but it has still allowed four passing touchdowns in 2026, even though it held Drake Maye without one in Week 2. Among Cleveland’s pass catchers, Fannin has been the most reliable option this season, logging 84.9 percent of the team’s snaps and collecting 18 total targets.
On the other side, Steelers tight end Darnell Washington is the kind of player who can turn a modest workload into a score. He has only six catches for 92 yards this season, which is why he’s a long shot, but the physical tools are obvious and the role has started to grow. Washington had just four targets across the first two weeks, then played a season-high 75.8 percent of the snaps in Week 3 and turned three of his four targets into 67 yards.
Cleveland has given up 19 catches for 198 yards and a touchdown to opposing tight ends this year, and if Washington keeps seeing this kind of usage, he becomes a live option at north of 5/1.
Warren is the safest touchdown play of the group, even if the price isn’t especially sexy. He’s coming off a 20-touch outing in Week 3 against Cincinnati, when he piled up 176 total yards from scrimmage.
He still has not scored this season, but the matchup gives him a real chance to break through. Cleveland ranks 23rd in EPA/Rush, and if Rico Dowdle remains out or limited, Warren’s workload should stay heavy.
He played more than 90 percent of the snaps for Pittsburgh with Dowdle sidelined, and another double-digit-touch game looks well within reach.
With the Steelers offense sitting 31st in EPA/Play, Warren’s role matters more than the odds. A -115 touchdown prop may not jump off the page, but in a game with this kind of scoring environment, volume can do the work.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
In Other News...
Steelers Finally Moved On From Joey Porter Jr For A Reason
Joey Porter Jr. is officially on the move, and the Steelers turned the page by dealing the cornerback to the Cowboys for a 2028 second-round pick and a 2027 sixth-rounder. For Pittsburgh, it was a striking end to a run that never really got back on track once Porter was sidelined in 2026, when a back injury and conditioning issues kept him out of game action all season.
Dallas is taking a measured approach with the former Steeler, and there is no immediate plan to extend his contract before seeing how he performs in a new setting. For Pittsburgh, the trade brings back future draft capital and closes the book on a player whose recent absence had become as much a part of the story as his talent. [Read more 🡒]
Browns Coach Just Added Fuel To Steelers' Latest AFC North Grudge Match
Todd Monken has been around the AFC North long enough to know how quickly a passing comment can sharpen a rivalry, and his latest one did exactly that. The Browns head coach, who has seen the Steelers from both Cleveland and Baltimore, took a shot at Pittsburghs veteran defensive core by suggesting it might be time for players like T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward to retire, a remark that lands with extra weight given how many bruising games those names have already created in this division.
For the Steelers, it is the kind of chatter that usually gets remembered long after the pregame noise fades. Watt and Heyward have been central figures in Pittsburghs identity for years, and Monkens familiarity with them only adds another layer to what is already set up as another hard-edged meeting between the Browns and Steelers, with the usual AFC North tension waiting for the first hit to bring it to the surface. [Read more 🡒]
LeVeon Bell Just Turned A Steelers Move Into A Bigger Debate
The Steelers decision to move on from Joey Porter Jr. has already sparked plenty of discussion, but the conversation widened quickly once LeVeon Bell weighed in on social media. Pittsburgh sent the cornerback to Dallas for future draft picks after a contract dispute and a back injury kept him from playing this season, a transaction that would have been debated on its own even before Bell added his criticism.
Bells comments pushed the story beyond football and into a much more familiar kind of scrutiny around the franchise. He alleged unequal treatment of black and white players, a charge that lands differently in light of the Steelers recent extensions for Cam Heyward, Jalen Ramsey and DK Metcalf, and it leaves the team facing a broader question about how this latest move is being interpreted around the league. [Read more 🡒]