The Buffalo Bills came out swinging on Sunday, rolling past the Pittsburgh Steelers 26-7 in a game that not only helped them bounce back from a tough loss to Houston but also gave their playoff hopes a serious jolt. Now sitting at 8-4, the Bills are firmly in the postseason mix, while the Steelers, now 6-6, find themselves in a much more precarious spot after letting a big opportunity slip through their fingers.
Let’s start with Pittsburgh. This was a game they couldn’t afford to drop-not with the AFC North still very much up for grabs.
Instead, they leave Week 13 with their playoff chances hanging by a thread. According to the latest projections, they’ve got just a 29% shot at making the postseason.
And here’s the kicker: their best path to the playoffs is winning the division outright. That’s a tall order in a division that’s as tight-and unpredictable-as any in football.
The Steelers are tied with the Ravens atop the AFC North, and they’ve got a huge head-to-head matchup coming in Week 14. Win that game, and their playoff odds jump to 63%.
Lose it, and they plummet to just 17%. That’s the kind of swing that defines a season.
And while the Bengals are still lurking two games behind, they’ve got a healthy Joe Burrow leading the charge and a chance to play spoiler-or more-down the stretch. Cincinnati’s hoping for a split between the Steelers and Ravens, with another Steelers-Ravens showdown looming in Week 18.
It’s been a wild ride for Pittsburgh. Back in Week 6, they were sitting pretty at 4-1 after a win over the Browns.
At that point, Cleveland was reeling at 1-5, the Ravens were also 1-5, and the Bengals were trying to stay afloat at 2-4 behind Jake Browning. At that moment, it looked like the Steelers had a clear path to 10 wins and a division crown.
Fast forward to now, and they’re just trying to claw their way to nine wins and a shot at the Wild Card.
Meanwhile, Buffalo’s situation is looking a lot more promising. Sunday’s win puts them at 8-4 heading into a pivotal Week 14 matchup against Cincinnati.
That game could go a long way in shaping the AFC Wild Card picture. Right now, the Bills are one game ahead of Houston, but because of their loss to the Texans, they don’t own the tiebreaker.
That means every win down the stretch matters, especially with the playoff race tightening.
The numbers back that up: Buffalo currently has an 89% chance to make the playoffs, and a win over the Bengals would push that number to 95%. But Buffalo isn’t just thinking Wild Card-they’re still eyeing a sixth straight AFC East title. It’s a long shot, but not impossible.
To make that happen, the Bills have to take care of business in Foxborough in Week 15. Even if the Patriots win their Monday night matchup, Buffalo would still have a 9% chance to win the division.
If New England beats the Giants, they’d move to 11-2 and hold a 2.5-game lead over the Bills. But with the Patriots on bye in Week 14, Buffalo has a real chance to close the gap.
Two straight wins would put them just one game back heading into the final stretch.
There’s also the bigger AFC picture to consider. The playoff landscape is shifting in a major way.
Buffalo might be hitting the road in the first round, and Kansas City-yes, that Kansas City-might not even make the cut. The Bills’ win over Pittsburgh didn’t just help their own cause; it also dealt a blow to the Chiefs, who now sit at 6-6 and two games behind Buffalo for the final Wild Card spot.
So while the Bills keep one eye on the AFC East, they’re also doing what they need to do to hold onto that last Wild Card berth. Less than two weeks ago, after losing to the Texans, it felt like Buffalo was teetering.
Now? They’ve got momentum, a clear path, and a quarterback in Josh Allen who’s more than capable of leading a December push.
As for the Steelers, the road ahead is steep. The Wild Card is likely out of reach, and the division may come down to how they handle their final two matchups with the Ravens.
Every game from here on out is a must-win. The AFC North is a pressure cooker, and Pittsburgh’s margin for error just got a whole lot thinner.