Joe Burrow and the Bengals head into Week 3 with a 2-0 start and the AFC North lead, and they get a chance to make that early surge count with a divisional trip to Pittsburgh.
The matchup comes with Cincinnati installed as a 3.5-point road favorite, even though the total has already dipped a point from its opening number of 43.5. That movement points in the same direction the numbers have been leaning all week: this has the feel of a grinder.
Pittsburgh’s offense has done almost nothing through two games. The Steelers rank 31st in EPA/Play and sit last in success rate on offense this season, and they managed only three points in Week 2.
Their running game has offered very little, and the ground attack is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry in 2026, the sixth-fewest in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers’ struggles have only added to the concern.
Cincinnati’s defense is giving oddsmakers another reason to expect a tight one. The Bengals have opened the season with wins over Tampa Bay and Houston, and their revamped unit is already sitting in the top five in EPA/Play. Pittsburgh has been strong defensively too, with games against Atlanta and New England showing a group that ranks second in opponent EPA and ninth in opponent success rate.
That defensive strength is exactly why SI Betting senior editor Iain MacMillan is on the UNDER in his Road to 272 column. He pointed to both offenses sputtering early, saying, "The Bengals may be 2-0, but I haven't been impressed with them, especially offensively, to begin the season.
They're 22nd in yards per play, 20th in EPA per play, and 24th in success rate. Then there's the Steelers' offense, which is even worse.
They have scored a combined 16 offensive points in two games against the Falcons and Patriots. They rank in the bottom five in virtually every single offensive metric.
Meanwhile, their defense has been fantastic, ranking second in opponent EPA and ninth in opponent success rate."
Even with the low-scoring setup, Cincinnati still looks like the more complete team. Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins give the Bengals a much steadier offensive ceiling, and they were able to move the ball enough in Week 2 to knock off a Houston defense that has been one of the league’s best.
The Bengals’ new-look defense has to hold up for the matchup to play out the way the numbers suggest, but if it does, Cincinnati should be in position to leave Pittsburgh with a comfortable win.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
In Other News...
Joey Porter Jr. Just Sparked A Steelers Debate He Can't Win
Joey Porter Jr. has only been in the league a short time, but he already knows what comes with a Steelers-Bengals week: every comment gets measured against the tape. After recent remarks suggesting he has never really had trouble with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, the discussion around his matchup work has only grown louder, because Pittsburgh fans know Cincinnatis top receivers have been central figures in this rivalry for years.
The numbers behind those games paint a more complicated picture for Porter and the Steelers. Across the past three seasons, Chase and Higgins have consistently found production when Porter has been on the field, while his own coverage grades against Cincinnati have bounced around from game to game. It leaves Porter in a familiar spot for a young corner in a division that never lets anyone off the hook: the debate is already bigger than the quote, and the next meeting is the only place he can really settle it. [Read more 🡒]
Steelers Suddenly Have A Guard Problem Before Bengals Week
The Steelers found themselves sorting through a new interior line concern this week as rookie guard Gennings Dunker popped up on the injury report with a knee issue ahead of Week 3. Spencer Anderson is still working through a bone break in his leg, though he has been able to practice fully this week, leaving Pittsburgh with a thinner-than-expected group at a spot that usually needs steady rotation and depth.
For now, Brock Hoffman is the only fully healthy guard on the roster, which makes the upcoming matchup with Cincinnati a little more complicated than the Steelers likely wanted. Even with Anderson on the field, the groups availability is suddenly a real storyline heading into a divisional game, and Pittsburgh will be watching closely to see how much it can trust its interior options when the game plan starts to take shape. [Read more 🡒]
Steelers Backfield Decision Just Got A Lot More Serious Before Bengals
The Steelers backfield picture got a little murkier this week with Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle both limited or missing practice because of injuries, leaving Pittsburgh with fewer clean answers as it prepares for Cincinnati. It is the kind of late-week development that can change how an offense is built, especially when the running game already has to absorb the ripple effects of a crowded injury report.
Pittsburgh has other players showing up as limited or absent, but the running back situation is the one demanding the most attention heading into the Bengals game. Depending on Dowdles availability, the Steelers may need to turn to the practice squad to add depth at the position, which would make Fridays final injury updates especially important. [Read more 🡒]