Michael McKenry’s point about the Pirates running into a parade of elite pitchers has some truth to it. Cy Young Awards.
All-Star appearances. MVP credentials.
That’s a rough slate for any lineup.
But at some point, the quality of the opposing starter stops being a full explanation and starts sounding like cover for a much bigger problem.
The Pirates have been shut out 15 times this season, the most in Major League Baseball. Seven of those blankings have come in the 38 games since the All-Star break, and that’s the part that really tells the story. A lineup that spent much of the first half looking like one of baseball’s biggest surprises has gone cold enough to become almost unrecognizable.
Before Wednesday’s game in San Diego, Pittsburgh ranked third-worst in baseball with a 26.3% second-half strikeout rate. The .226 batting average sat 26th, and the .350 slugging percentage was better than only the Los Angeles Angels.
Bryan Reynolds is one of the clearest examples of how quickly this has turned. He was hitting .283 with an .877 OPS, 14 homers and 59 RBI before the break, the kind of first half that made him look like a major National League All-Star snub.
Since then, he’s hitting .215 with a .593 OPS. In 149 at-bats, he has one home run and seven RBI.
Brandon Lowe’s numbers have also slipped from an .803 first-half OPS to .741, and his strikeout rate has climbed to 37.7%. In San Diego, he went 0-for-11 with eight strikeouts.
Spencer Horwitz dropped from .280 with an .841 OPS before the break to .159 with a .411 OPS after it, though he has been dealing with injuries. Esmerlyn Valdez went from .309 with a 1.084 OPS in his first 28 games to .200 with a .747 OPS since the break.
Jake Mangum and Henry Davis have regressed. Ryan O'Hearn and Endy Rodriguez were already struggling before they landed on the injured list. Nick Gonzales has basically held steady, and Jared Triolo has improved a bit, but the list of bright spots ends quickly after that.
Injuries matter, sure, but they don’t fully account for an offense this flat - especially when the pitching staff has been giving the Pirates a chance to stay afloat. That’s what made Wednesday’s loss in San Diego so damaging.
Pittsburgh had a shot to pick up two games on the Padres in the wild-card race. The pitching held up.
The offense didn’t. Again.
There are reinforcements on the way, at least in theory. Cruz is back.
Griffin is targeting Sept. 4.
O'Hearn could return in the middle of September, maybe even sooner if Pittsburgh can speed up his comeback as a designated hitter.
Still, the standings are the standings. The Pirates are five games under .500 and 7.5 games behind San Diego for the final wild-card spot, with three other teams in front of them. Their 15-23 record since the break has probably already turned what once looked like a real playoff chase into a September long shot.
This isn’t just about facing a few tough arms. Good teams have to beat good pitchers sometimes.
In the first half, the Pirates looked like a club that could do that. Over the last six weeks, they’ve looked like the old version of the Pirates offense everyone thought had finally been left behind.
In Other News...
Pirates Face A Telling Decision On A Power Bat They Need
The Pirates are once again staring at the kind of midseason opportunity that can alter a roster in a hurry. With the Reds reportedly putting Eugenio Surez on outright waivers, the market has opened for any club willing to jump in during a 48-hour window, and Pittsburgh is among the teams weighing whether the cost is worth the potential boost. Surez has shown better form since the All-Star break, and his right-handed power would fit a lineup that could use another dangerous bat.
Of course, claiming him would mean taking on the rest of his salary, which sits just under $3 million. That is not an enormous price for a club looking for offense, but it is still the kind of decision that can reveal how serious the Pirates are about trying to upgrade now rather than waiting for the bigger move later. [Read more 🡒]
Spencer Horwitz Has Become A Real Problem For The Pirates Lineup
Spencer Horwitzs return on Aug. 2 was supposed to give the Pirates a needed boost after he missed 33 games with a left hamstring injury and a concussion. Instead, his reentry has been part of the clubs broader second-half offensive slide, with the lineup looking increasingly short on consistent production as the playoff race tightens.
Horwitz has been candid about his own struggles, and the numbers back up the frustration. He has hit just .159 since coming back, with limited extra-base power and little run production, leaving Pittsburgh still searching for the kind of collective offensive rebound that can keep its postseason hopes alive. [Read more 🡒]
Pirates Prospect Is Forcing A Tough September Decision
Mitch Jebb has spent this season making a case that the Pirates can no longer treat him as a long-term project only. After recovering from a thumb injury, the outfield prospect has shown more power at Triple-A Indianapolis, giving Pittsburgh a different look at a player whose value has always gone beyond one tool. With roster decisions looming as September approaches, Jebb has put himself on the radar in a way that can complicate the usual end-of-season shuffle.
For the Pirates, the timing matters. Expanded rosters create room for a look, and Jebb is also edging toward Rule 5 Draft eligibility, which raises the stakes of every call the organization makes over the next few weeks. If Pittsburgh finds itself further from the playoff race, the club could lean into evaluation mode and start thinking about whether Jebb belongs on the 40-man roster or in line for a chance to help in 2027 as a versatile option. [Read more 🡒]