Heading into 2026, the National League Rookie of the Year conversation looked like a Pittsburgh Pirates story. Konnor Griffin had the early buzz, and Bubba Chandler seemed to have a real shot too. But now another Pirates rookie has crashed into the race: Esmerlyn Valdez.
Valdez didn’t arrive with the kind of prospect hype that usually turns heads. He was never a top-100 name and sits No. 9 on the Pirates’ top 30 list per MLB Pipeline.
None of that has mattered much lately. The 22-year-old Dominican native has been tearing through pitchers, and his production has made him impossible to ignore.
Through 28 games and 105 plate appearances, Valdez went into the All-Star break hitting .309/.371/.713 with 10 home runs. That’s a scorching start by any standard, even if the numbers are coming in a relatively small sample.
He’s not going to keep slugging .713, and his swing-and-miss issues make a .309 average hard to sustain. Some regression is coming.
Still, the underlying performance points to something real.
Valdez does damage when he connects. He hits the ball hard, and he does it often.
He also doesn’t chase much outside the zone. If he cleans up a few things, he can bring down the whiff rate and, with it, the strikeouts.
He’s also shown a knack for delivering when the moment gets loud. During the July 11 doubleheader against the rival Milwaukee Brewers, he made MLB history by piling up four go-ahead hits, three go-ahead homers, and one go-ahead grand slam.
“ESMERLYN VALDEZ ... AGAIN 🤯
This is his third home run today! pic.twitter.com/JbFryeAB0F
- MLB (@MLB) July 11, 2026”
For now, St. Louis Cardinals second baseman JJ Wetherholt remains the clear favorite for the award.
He’s sitting on 3.5 fWAR at the All-Star break, more than twice the next closest rookie, with TJ Rumfield, Sal Stewart and Carson Benge tied at 1.7. The Cardinals also backed him with an eight-year, $112.5 million extension.
Wetherholt has delivered across the board, batting .259/.356/.399 with 13 homers, nine stolen bases, 16 outs above average and 11 defensive runs saved in 90 games.
Valdez hasn’t matched that volume, but his rate stats are eye-catching. In just 28 games, he has already put up 1.4 fWAR.
If both players somehow kept that pace over 150 games, Valdez would run away with it. That won’t happen, but the point stands: he’s done enough in a short burst to make people take notice.
Wetherholt is still the favorite. Valdez is still the long shot.
But with the kind of numbers he’s putting up, the Pirates rookie has at least forced himself into the conversation. If he keeps this going in the second half, the awards race could get a lot more interesting.
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Konnor Griffin Just Made Pirates Fans Care Even More About This Pick
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Griffin was clearly energized by the pick, pointing to Curiels growth and the kind of impact he could eventually bring to the Pirates lineup. Beyond the personal link, Curiel arrives with a reputation for being a polished, versatile outfielder who can handle all three spots, which only adds to the intrigue around how Pittsburgh plans to use him moving forward. [Read more 🡒]