The Pirates are past the point of shrugging off Paul Skenes’ latest stretch as nothing more than a bad run.
Wednesday night in Philadelphia made that impossible to ignore. The Phillies beat Pittsburgh, 10-6, at Citizens Bank Park and chased Skenes after four innings.
The defending National League Cy Young winner was charged with eight runs, seven earned, on six hits. It was the Pirates’ ninth straight loss in a Skenes start, a skid that has dragged him from 6-2 with a 1.98 ERA after his May 12 win over the Colorado Rockies to 6-8 with a 3.62 ERA.
At this point, the explanation can’t just be bad luck or a lack of support behind him. The numbers keep pointing to something more serious than that.
That does not automatically mean injury. Skenes did not suggest that after the game, and there’s obvious risk in trying to diagnose a pitcher from the outside. But whether the issue is fatigue, mechanical drift, a conscious step back in velocity, World Baseball Classic wear, confidence, pitch design or something physical, the bottom line is the same: he does not look like himself.
The fastball tells the story first. Skenes averaged 96.3 mph on Wednesday, below his season norm, and he fell into the 93-94 mph range in the fourth inning.
Plenty of pitchers would still take that. For Skenes, it stands out.
His whole game is built on overpowering hitters with velocity and then making the rest of the arsenal play up off that threat. When the heater loses a little edge, everything behind it gets easier to handle.
The Pirates can’t keep waiting for this to sort itself out on its own. They need to make room for a real evaluation - medical, mechanical, workload-related, all of it. And they need to consider the possibility that skipping a start or placing him on the injured list is the right call.
The danger is obvious: continuing to send him out there simply because he’s Paul Skenes, because of what he means to the franchise and because everyone wants him to look dominant again. That’s how a short-term issue turns into something much bigger.
Skenes will keep competing and taking the ball if they let him. The organization has to be the one to step in if that’s not the right move.
If Pittsburgh has to proceed as if its ace is out for a while, the ripple effects are immediate. Bubba Chandler, Jared Jones, Braxton Ashcraft and Mitch Keller would all face more pressure.
The bullpen need becomes even more urgent. And Ben Cherington would have to be straight about the trade deadline, because a team that doesn’t have peak Skenes can’t plan around the version it wishes it had.
Skenes is not done. He is too good, too driven and too important for that kind of conclusion. But he is not right, and the Pirates have reached the point where that has to be the starting point for whatever comes next.
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