The Pirates are handing the ball to a trio that could shape the tone of a crucial three-game set against the Tigers at PNC Park.
Pittsburgh opens the series Aug. 17-19 with Carmen Mlodzinski on the mound, follows with Braxton Ashcraft in the second game, and finishes with Paul Skenes in the finale. Detroit counters with left-hander Framber Valdez in the opener, then right-handers Keider Montero and Jackson Jobe.
For the Pirates, the spotlight falls hardest on Mlodzinski first. With Mitch Keller done for the season after suffering a right arm tear, a major muscle injury, on Aug.
3, Mlodzinski has been pushed into the role the club needed him to fill. The results lately haven’t been pretty.
Over his last two starts, both in games Keller would have taken, Mlodzinski has been tagged for nine earned runs in 5.1 innings, a 15.19 ERA in two losses. He allowed five earned runs in three innings against the Mets at PNC Park on Aug. 7, including a four-run third inning that ended with a three-run homer by Marcus Semien. The rain delay in that game offered a bit of context, since he came back out after a 30-minute-plus interruption, but his next outing was even rougher.
Against the Marlins at LoanDepot Park on Aug. 12, Mlodzinski gave up five hits and four earned runs in 2.1 innings.
He never got through the third, and Pirates manager Don Kelly pulled him before the start of that frame. The issue has been loud contact: 14 hard hits on 25 batted ball events, a 56% rate that would pace the majors if it held up over a full season.
Still, the Pirates haven’t bailed on him. Mlodzinski showed earlier in the year, during a two-month stretch in the rotation, that he can handle a bigger role.
Now they need that version again, and quickly. Lake Bachar offered a reminder of how valuable that kind of bridge work can be, throwing three scoreless innings and escaping two tough jams against the Red Sox in an 8-3 win on Aug.
Ashcraft arrives in the middle game coming off the kind of start that can change the conversation around a pitcher. On Aug. 13, he tossed his first complete game in a 13-1 win over the Marlins, one of the best recent starts for a Pirates pitcher and a historic one, too. He came within a ninth-inning home run by Owen Caissie of a shutout, but otherwise controlled the game from start to finish.
Ashcraft needed just 85 pitches and struck out 10, with 13 pitches in the first inning his highest total in any frame. That outing made him the first pitcher in MLB history, since pitch tracking began in 1988, to throw a complete game in nine innings with 10 strikeouts and 85 pitches or less. It also came at a time when Pittsburgh has been careful with him because of his injury history.
Before that gem, though, Ashcraft had been in a rough stretch, carrying a 7.88 ERA across his previous five outings. The Pirates are banking on the complete-game version sticking around as he works through his first full major league season in the rotation.
Then there’s Skenes, whose turn was moved back for extra rest. The original plan had him pitching against the Red Sox in the finale, but Pittsburgh decided to give him more time between starts in hopes of getting him closer to the version that made him one of the best pitchers in baseball.
His last outing, on Aug. 11 against the Marlins, was solid on the surface: two runs in five innings. But he needed 65 pitches to get through those five frames and gave up plenty of hard contact. The fastball was part of the concern, with five hard hits on seven batted ball events and a velocity dip to 95.7 mph, down from his season average of 96.9 mph.
Skenes enters this one with a 5.00 ERA and just three wins in his last 16 starts. There’s been plenty of chatter about why he’s not dominating the way he did earlier, including deep dives into his mechanics, but Skenes isn’t hurt and doesn’t have an answer for the drop-off.
Against Detroit, he gets a chance to reset the conversation. And with a nine-game road trip waiting after this start, the timing could hardly be bigger.
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