The Pittsburgh Pirates head into 2027 with a rotation that, on paper, looks built to cover a lot of ground. More than five months remain before Opening Day, but if the club were filling out its ideal five-man group right now, the order starts with Paul Skenes and keeps rolling from there.
Skenes is the obvious choice to get the ball first. He should be making his third Opening Day start, and this one comes March 25 against the Athletics at PNC Park.
It will be his first time opening a season in Pittsburgh. His last Opening Day assignment was rough: five runs allowed and no escape from the first inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field on March 26.
The 2026 season was tougher than expected for Skenes. He went 10-11 in 32 starts with a 3.82 ERA over 174.1 innings, struck out 200 and walked 49, and finished with a .227 BAA and a 1.12 WHIP.
From mid-May on, the slide was more pronounced, as he posted a 4-9 record and a 4.56 ERA over 23 starts. Velocity issues, trouble getting the offspeed stuff established and mechanical problems all showed up along the way.
That offseason work now becomes the next step, and the Pirates are still counting on him to lead things off.
Behind him, Braxton Ashcraft has earned the No. 2 spot in this setup. He was Pittsburgh’s best starter in 2026, and it was his first full year in an MLB rotation.
Ashcraft finished 14-6 in 28 starts with a 3.65 ERA across 165.1 innings, 173 strikeouts, 35 walks, a .235 BAA and a 1.09 WHIP. He also made his first All-Star team after a huge May, when he went 4-0 in six starts with a 1.99 ERA over 40.2 innings, 42 strikeouts, five walks, a .221 BAA and a 0.93 WHIP.
Ashcraft had a rougher stretch in June and July, but he finished strong in August. That month included his first complete game, a 10-strikeout outing against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot Park on Aug. 13, and then an eight-inning, 80-pitch performance in a 4-1 win over the Detroit Tigers at PNC Park on Aug.
- The Pirates shut him down in mid-September after right-side discomfort, though nothing serious came from it, and he should be ready to hold down the second spot in 2027.
Rounding out the top three is Jared Jones, who finally returned after more than a year away following internal brace surgery. He debuted on May 29 and stayed in the rotation for the final four months of the season. Jones went 5-6 in 21 starts with a 3.72 ERA over 101.2 innings, 123 strikeouts, 31 walks, a .209 BAA and a 1.08 WHIP.
His season came in waves. The first month back was uneven, and August was brutal, with Jones among the worst pitchers in baseball.
But he also flashed exactly why the Pirates are so interested in his ceiling. In July, he posted an MLB-best .120 BAA and a 0.63 WHIP.
In September, he won National League Pitcher of the Month honors. That month featured two headline outings: a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Chicago White Sox at Rate Field on Sept. 10, and a perfect game into the sixth inning against the St.
Louis Cardinals at PNC Park on Sept. 22, both in 2-0 wins.
For 2027, Jones feels like a swing piece with real upside. If he stays healthy, sharpens his pitch mix and gets off to a strong start, he could work his way into NL Cy Young conversation.
Mitch Keller slots in fourth in this projection. He had a rough 2026 and missed the final two months with a season-ending right arm teres major muscle injury.
In 22 starts, he went 6-8 with a 5.29 ERA over 115.2 innings, 89 strikeouts, 42 walks, a .259 BAA and a 1.37 WHIP. It was his worst season since 2021, and his struggles put added pressure on the bullpen.
Still, Keller is the kind of arm Pittsburgh has often leaned on for innings, and putting him after Jones would help give the relief corps a break if he’s back on track. He’s also in the fourth year of his five-year, $77 million extension, which makes 2027 a major year for him.
The fifth spot goes to Bubba Chandler. Like Ashcraft, he worked through his first full season in the rotation in 2026, though with less experience.
Chandler went 8-10 with a 4.50 ERA over 154.0 innings, struck out 140 and walked 80, and posted a .234 BAA and a 1.40 WHIP. Command was the issue.
He issued the third-most walks in baseball and had the highest BB/9 at 4.68 among pitchers with at least 150 innings. Even so, there were signs of progress.
He cut down the walks in the second half, put together a strong August and added a sinker to his arsenal. By season’s end, he had clearly matured, and that matters for what comes next.
Pittsburgh also mixed in bullpen games in 2026, with Lake Bachar and Mason Montgomery making spot starts throughout. But if the Pirates are looking at the strongest possible Opening Day rotation for 2027, the group starts with Skenes, Ashcraft, Jones, Keller and Chandler.
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