The Pirates are heading into one of their toughest stretches of the season with their rotation lined up and a clear test waiting in New York.
Pittsburgh opens a three-game series against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium on July 20, and the matchup comes against the team with the second-best record in the American League. The Pirates will send Braxton Ashcraft to the mound in the opener, followed by Bubba Chandler on July 21 and Mitch Keller on July 22.
New York’s starters for the series will be left-hander Ryan Weathers in the opener, right-hander Will Warren in the second game and Gerrit Cole in the finale.
Ashcraft’s assignment shifted after the Pirates originally had him scheduled to start the second game of their series against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on July 18. A rain delay on July 17 led to a doubleheader, and Pittsburgh chose to move Ashcraft’s outing to the Yankees series opener since the club needed a bullpen game anyway.
That means Ashcraft gets the first crack at a lineup that will see him try to build on a first half that earned him his first All-Star selection in his young MLB career. He finished the opening half at 9-3 with a 3.43 ERA in 19 starts, striking out 128 and walking 27 over 113.1 innings. He also allowed a .235 batting average and posted a 1.11 WHIP.
The numbers tell the story of a pitcher who has done more than hold his own. Ashcraft ranked among the top 15 pitchers in baseball in innings and strikeouts, and he was the Pirates’ best first-half starter, even ahead of Paul Skenes. The only real concern now is how the workload holds up the rest of the way, given his injury history.
Chandler’s season has looked different. The Pirates want him to develop into a future ace, and the stuff is there, but the command hasn’t always matched it.
He went 3-8 across 18 starts in the first half, putting up a 4.77 ERA over 94.1 innings with 85 strikeouts and 55 walks. He also allowed a .230 batting average and carried a 1.45 WHIP.
The walk total stands out even more. Chandler leads all of baseball in walks issued, and his 5.25 BB/9 is almost 100 points higher than the next pitcher, San Francisco left-hander Robbie Ray at 4.39. His 1.55 K/BB would also be the lowest in baseball if he were qualified.
There has been some recent progress, though. Over his last seven outings, Chandler has worked to a 4.34 ERA in 37.1 innings, an improvement over the 5.05 ERA he posted in his first 12 starts and 57.0 innings. In five of those recent appearances, he allowed two runs or fewer, and he has been getting deeper into games while learning how to attack each opponent.
Keller enters the series needing a reset. The Pirates expected him to be a steady source of length and consistency, but the last two months have been rough. Over his last 11 starts, he is 2-6 with a 7.03 ERA, 44 earned runs allowed in 56.1 innings, 11 home runs surrendered and 42 strikeouts against 21 walks.
His most recent outing was especially ugly. In a 10-5 loss to the Atlanta Braves at PNC Park on July 9, he gave up three runs and a home run while lasting only three innings on 72 pitches.
Keller will have two weeks between starts when he takes the ball against Cole, who the Pirates selected first overall in the 2011 MLB Draft out of UCLA and who pitched five seasons for Pittsburgh from 2013-17. Cole is looking to get back to Cy Young form, and Keller will need to be much sharper than he’s been lately.
Earlier in the season, Keller showed what the Pirates need from him. He opened with a 4-1 record over his first eight starts, a 2.87 ERA and six quality starts, which the source defines as at least six innings pitched and three runs allowed or fewer. Keller said he is working on his mechanics and trying to figure out what he needs to start pitching better again, and Pittsburgh badly needs that version of him against the Yankees.
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