The Pittsburgh Pirates are one bad break away from being done.
Sitting at 76-77 with nine games left, Pittsburgh is on the brink of playoff elimination, and it doesn’t take much to push them over the edge. One Pirates loss - or even one win by a team ahead of them in the standings - would knock them out of postseason contention.
That leaves the Pirates in a brutal spot: they would need to win out and get a lot of help to keep the season alive. Their path is narrow enough that it’s basically a perfect storm. Pittsburgh has to take all nine of its remaining games and hope the San Diego Padres drop all nine of theirs to sneak into the postseason.
The Padres hold the final National League Wild Card spot, while the Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies occupy the top two Wild Card positions at 85-68. Those two teams are out of Pittsburgh’s reach.
The Pirates do have a couple of clubs in front of them still within the elimination math. The Arizona Diamondbacks are four games back and six games from elimination, while the Miami Marlins are also four games back, own the season series 4-2 over Pittsburgh, and are eight games back with two games left before elimination.
The St. Louis Cardinals are still technically alive too, but they’re nine games back and just one loss away from being eliminated.
For much of the season, the Pirates stayed in the mix for that last Wild Card spot. They were still holding the third position as late as July 27, when Brandon Lowe delivered a walk-off single to beat the Diamondbacks 3-2 at PNC Park. That left Pittsburgh at 55-52 with the tiebreaker in hand.
The slide came soon after. Pittsburgh dropped seven straight series through Aug. 9, going 7-16 in that stretch and falling to 59-64, six games out.
Since then, the Pirates have steadied themselves some, winning seven of their last 10 series. Even so, they’re only 17-13 over that span and still haven’t climbed above .500.
Meanwhile, San Diego has surged at exactly the wrong time for Pittsburgh. The Padres have won nine of their last 10 games and 11 of 17 in September.
It’s a finish the Pirates didn’t picture when the season began, but injuries, players not reaching their potential, the absence of a real winning streak, and that ugly late-July to early-August stretch have all wiped out their postseason hopes. The only thing left now is the math, and the math is close to closing the door.
In Other News...
Pirates Final Home Weekend Comes Down To One Rotation Decision
The Pirates final home weekend at PNC Park is taking shape with a familiar mix of promise and patchwork, as Kansas City comes to town Sept. 18-20. Paul Skenes gets the opener, Bubba Chandler follows on Sept. 19, and both right-handers arrive with some recent momentum after improved outings that have given Pittsburgh at least a little lift in an otherwise difficult stretch.
The finale is where the calendar and the rotation catch up to the Pirates, who are again leaning on a bullpen game because of season-ending injuries to Braxton Ashcraft and Mitch Keller. Lake Bachar is expected to draw the start Sunday unless he is needed earlier, leaving the club with one more late-season roster puzzle to solve before its home schedule closes out. [Read more 🡒]
Brandon Lowe Is Forcing A Pirates Question Fans Wont Like
Brandon Lowe has quietly become one of the more interesting long-term questions on the Pirates roster, and not just because of what he does on the field. With his current deal set to run through the 2026 season, Lowes mix of offense and defense is putting him in position to be one of the more sought-after names when the time comes, which is exactly the kind of development that forces a front office to think ahead.
For Pittsburgh, the awkward part is what comes next. The Pirates have not opened extension talks with Lowe, and the expectation is that he will reach free agency and find a stronger market elsewhere. A qualifying offer could still be part of the conversation, but matching the kind of money Lowe should command on the open market feels unlikely, leaving the club with a familiar dilemma about whether it can keep a productive player in black and gold once the bidding starts. [Read more 🡒]
Pirates Running Out Of Time To Lock Up Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz has given the Pirates a much better offensive version of himself in 2026, and it has come at a time when the club could really use a long-term answer in the middle of the lineup. After coming back from a hand injury, Cruz has kept producing, and the most notable step forward has been his work against left-handed pitching, where both his slugging percentage and OPS have climbed from a year ago. For a Pittsburgh offense that has leaned on him more and more, the development matters beyond the box score because it changes how the team can think about its future.
Cruzs progress also makes the contract conversation harder, not easier. A player who is showing more power, more consistency and a better overall offensive profile is naturally going to cost more, and that puts the Pirates in a familiar bind as they try to sort out how aggressive they can be on an extension. The timing is awkward, because the better he looks at the plate, the less likely he is to come cheaply, and that is the kind of leverage a rebuilding club would rather have on its side than against it. [Read more 🡒]