In the world of Major League Baseball, few debuts have been as electrifying as that of Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes. Since bursting onto the scene in 2024, Skenes has not only dominated the Majors but has also established himself as arguably the top pitcher in the league. With accolades like a Cy Young Award and Rookie of the Year under his belt, and boasting a remarkable 1.96 ERA over 55 starts, Skenes has set the bar high.
As we look ahead to 2026, the buzz around Skenes is reaching new heights. MLB.com's Brent Maguire has made a daring prediction: Skenes could deliver a 10 bWAR season, potentially the best pitching performance in over a decade. It's an ambitious target, but for a talent like Skenes, it's not out of reach.
The last pitcher to achieve a 10-plus WAR season was Zack Greinke in 2009, when he notched a 10.4 bWAR with the Kansas City Royals. So, what would it take for Skenes to join such elite company?
Last season, Skenes delivered a 7.7 bWAR over 32 starts and 187.2 innings. The challenge lies in increasing his innings pitched, as Greinke logged 229.1 innings during his standout season. For Skenes to reach the 10 WAR milestone, he'll need to extend his outings and maintain his stellar performance.
With an average of just under 1.0 bWAR per 23 innings last season, Skenes would need to add over 50 innings to his workload. It's a daunting task, especially in an era where pitchers are often limited in their innings. Yet, if anyone can defy the odds, it's Skenes.
While achieving a 10 WAR season is a tall order, the mere possibility underscores the extraordinary talent Skenes possesses. Should he manage to pull it off, it would not only mark the best pitching season since Greinke's 2009 performance but also solidify Skenes' status as the premier pitcher in today's game.