Mitch Keller’s season ended on Aug. 2, but the full picture of his injury didn’t come into focus until after the year was over. The Pirates right-hander was shut down with what was initially described as a teres major strain, and it later turned out to be a Grade 3 injury - severe enough that the muscle completely detached from the bone. Even so, Keller avoided surgery.
At this week’s GM Meetings, general manager Ben Cherington said the club has been meeting in person with players to go over offseason plans, and Keller’s update was encouraging. Cherington said the righty is “basically recovered” after more than three months away from the mound. Keller has started throwing from flat ground and is headed into what should be a mostly normal offseason.
That’s a welcome development for Pittsburgh, which spent much of the year getting quality work from Keller before the injury and then watching the right-hander’s performance unravel. He opened the season with a 3.64 ERA over his first 11 starts, then posted a 7.36 ERA across his next 11 outings.
The decline came with fewer swings and misses, shakier command, more home runs allowed and, eventually, a dip in velocity. Keller sat at 93.5 mph on his fastball for much of the year, but that number fell to 92.8 mph over his final five starts, including a season-low 91.9 mph average in his last appearance.
The Pirates still owe Keller $38MM over the next two seasons, so getting him back to his previous level matters. From 2022-25, he averaged 31 starts per season with a 4.15 ERA and quality rate stats. If that version returns, he’d be a major piece in a rotation that is young, right-handed and already crowded with Paul Skenes, Braxton Ashcraft, Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler, with Carmen Mlodzinski also in the mix as both a sixth starter and bullpen option.
That right-handed tilt runs through the rest of the staff, too. Gregory Soto is back on the free-agent market after a solid one-year run in Pittsburgh, leaving Mason Montgomery as the only lefty locked into a roster spot. Brandon Eisert and Evan Sisk could also be part of the picture, and Hunter Barco might fit either as rotation depth or as a bullpen arm.
The lack of left-handed pitching stands out even more because PNC Park plays so kindly to pitchers, especially out toward left field. That’s part of why the Pirates have previously gone after southpaws such as Tyler Anderson, Martín Pérez, Jose Quintana and Andrew Heaney. Cherington said the club may again look to add another left-handed arm.
“We see the advantage of having left-handed pitching at PNC Park,” Cherington said in an appearance on 93.7 The Fan (Audacy link). “We see how many left-handed hitters are in the game today. We want to put ourselves in a position to combat that as well as we possibly can.”
For now, the rotation is full, but that won’t stop other clubs from calling about Pittsburgh’s young starters. Skenes and Ashcraft would be major surprises if they were moved, though Mlodzinski has already expressed a desire to start and doesn’t have a clear lane to that role when everyone is healthy.
A lefty who can cover multiple innings would make sense, and the free-agent market offers names such as Sean Newcomb, Jordan Montgomery, Eric Lauer and Ryan Yarbrough. If injuries or trades create an opening, the Pirates could also look at short-term options like Robbie Ray, Matthew Boyd, Kris Bubic and Jeffrey Springs.
Offensively, Pittsburgh has more flexibility than it has had in recent winters. Cherington said on The Fan that the club has a deeper roster and a stronger foundation than in past offseasons, and that the goal is to improve the roster “in totality” rather than chase one obvious fix. He mentioned the possibility of adding help in the outfield, infield or behind the plate, a broader approach made possible by the team’s positional versatility.
Oneil Cruz is set in center field and Bryan Reynolds in right. Esmerlyn Valdez offers upside in right as well, while Jake Mangum gives the Pirates a safety net if Valdez’s strikeout issues send him back to Triple-A for more seasoning. Ryan O’Hearn can also play right field, though he’ll split time there with designated hitter and first base, where Spencer Horwitz is in the mix.
The infield gives Cherington even more options. Konnor Griffin is the shortstop of the future, Nick Gonzales can handle either second or third, and the Pirates have been in contact with Brandon Lowe after extending him a $23.15MM qualifying offer.
Cherington said a reunion has not been ruled out, though Lowe is expected to reject the QO. If he leaves, Pittsburgh still has Gonzales plus Jacob Gonzalez, Jared Triolo, Nick Yorke and Tyler Callihan on the 40-man roster.
Third baseman Murf Gray, the club’s second-round pick in 2025, is also a top-100 prospect after tearing through three levels of the minors and should be MLB-ready sometime in 2027.
Catcher, long a sore spot, looks better now than it has in years. Henry Davis has become a premium defensive backup, while Endy Rodriguez and Rafael Flores Jr. both produced at the plate in limited chances.
Rodriguez’s year ended in August after surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip, and he could miss time into next season. Flores, meanwhile, gave the Pirates plenty to like with a .264/.331/.527 line in 164 plate appearances.
All of that depth gives Pittsburgh a wider menu of offseason possibilities, but it also raises the bar. The Pirates spent much of this season in the race before injuries hit the lineup hard and wrecked their postseason hopes down the stretch.
The rotation is healthy and strong. The lineup has more established bats than it has in quite a while.
Cherington is also heading into the final season of his contract in 2027, which only adds to the pressure to push harder and take more chances this winter, assuming owner Bob Nutting allows it. Pittsburgh is projected for roughly a $101MM payroll next season, a figure that sits well below the rest of the league but is only about $4MM shy of last year’s club-record $104.5MM Opening Day payroll.
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