The Pirates’ offseason puzzle starts with Mitch Keller, and that one decision could shape everything else they try to do.
Pittsburgh has a long shopping list, but the rotation sits near the center of it. Paul Skenes, Braxton Ashcraft and Jared Jones look locked in.
Bubba Chandler is probably part of the mix too. Wilber Dotel will get a look for a starting job, though he could also wind up as a useful bullpen piece.
That leaves Keller as the swing factor.
For a while, Keller’s name lived in trade rumors because he made sense as a steady, innings-based arm on a manageable contract. That version of the story no longer fits.
In 2026, the 30-year-old right-hander put up a 5.29 ERA and then missed the final two months with a right shoulder strain. Instead of being a dependable stabilizer, he became a bounce-back bet who is owed just shy of $39 million over the next two seasons.
That changes the market. Keller was never going to bring back a huge return, but now the Pirates would be looking more at a salary dump than a meaningful haul.
Pirates insider Noah Hiles made the point on the Bucco Territory Podcast: if Pittsburgh wants to make a real external upgrade to the rotation, moving Keller is the path.
How the Pirates approach the rotation this offseason starts with the plan for Mitch Keller
With Keller due $18 mil in 2027, their options are limited for external additions unless they trade Keller pic.twitter.com/jwWJ3xnaW7
- Bucco Territory (@BuccoTerritory) October 6, 2026
Even if the Pirates do trade Keller, that alone doesn’t solve the bigger budget problem. They still may not have enough room to address every need on the list, especially if they want to add a starting pitcher. A left-handed starter would make plenty of sense given how many right-handed power arms already populate the staff, but if payroll stays flat, the front office will be forced to choose.
According to Spotrac, Pittsburgh’s adjusted payroll for 2026 was $106.7 million. There also aren’t many big contracts coming off the books. Lowe, Gregory Soto and the retiring Kirby Yates are the only major league free agents leaving, and that trio opens up about $22 million before arbitration raises are added in.
Lowe is the obvious priority. The Pirates are likely to extend the qualifying offer, which will be just over $23 million. Coming off a 35-homer season, he’s unlikely to take that one-year deal, but the qualifying offer could help shape his market while the sides work toward a longer agreement.
A deal in the three-year range sounds like the likely lane for Lowe, and at 32, he probably won’t see much more term than that. But that kind of contract would eat up nearly all of Pittsburgh’s available money before arbitration is even part of the conversation.
That is why Keller matters so much. Moving his roughly $18 million salary would give the Pirates a chance to chase the southpaw starter they need.
Even then, though, the math still looks tight. They would likely still be over last year’s payroll number, and they would still need help at third base, a right-handed power bat, bench upgrades and bullpen reinforcements.
So Keller is the first domino, not the final answer. Trading him would move the Pirates in the right direction, but if they want a real offseason, it will take more spending from Bob Nutting. Without that, 2027 starts to look a lot like 2026: better than before, but still short of a true playoff push.
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Bednar also comes with something the Pirates can use beyond familiarity, since his work in New York showed he still has the kind of effectiveness teams covet in tight games. Bringing him back would not solve every bullpen question by itself, but it would give Pittsburgh a proven option to pair with its other relief pieces and would represent one of the cleaner roster fits of the winter if the two sides decide an old reunion makes sense. [Read more 🡒]
Pirates Could Be Facing An Uncomfortable Oscar Marin What-If
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Marin has spent this past season in Cincinnati as the bullpen coach, and his role grew more prominent when he helped manage the pitching staff during Johnsons personal leave. That kind of interim responsibility can be a launching pad, and it has put him in position for a promotion the Pirates will notice whether they want to or not. For a team that already chose to move on, the uncomfortable part is obvious: if Marin lands the job, Pittsburgh will be left watching a former coach get rewarded just as its division rival fills a key opening. [Read more 🡒]
Pirates Face A Costly Rotation Decision Fans Can't Ignore
The Pirates winter pitching plans may hinge on one of the most familiar names in their rotation. Mitch Keller, signed to a five-year extension in 2024, is now part of a broader cost-and-construct conversation in Pittsburgh, where the club has spent the past year leaning into a promising young group on the mound. With the rotation trending younger and cheaper, Kellers place in it is no longer as settled as it once seemed.
His contract still carries meaningful money in 2027 and 2028, and that alone makes him a notable offseason decision for a team trying to balance payroll with upside. Add in the fact that Kellers performance has dipped since an injury, and the Pirates have a harder call than simply deciding whether to keep a proven starter. If they do move him, the expectation is that Pittsburgh would try to fill the gap with lower-cost arms or another rookie coming through the system. [Read more 🡒]