Spencer Horwitz’s Super Two status is a small number on paper, but it nudges the Pirates into a tougher winter math problem.
Horwitz finished the 2026 season with 2.152 years of major-league service time, which normally would have left him one year shy of arbitration. Instead, he qualified as a Super Two player, landing in the top 22 percent of service time among eligible players with between two and three years in the majors. That means an extra trip through arbitration for Horwitz, and another salary bump Pittsburgh has to plan for.
MLB Trade Rumors projects Horwitz at $2.5 million in 2027, and that puts him among 10 arbitration-eligible Pirates. The number itself won’t blow up the payroll, but it does sharpen the larger picture: the Pirates’ young, affordable core is starting to get less affordable, and sooner than they may have hoped.
Horwitz’s 2026 season showed why this matters in a more complicated way than just the price tag. He hit .244/.344/.364 with 10 home runs and 49 RBI in 114 games, producing a 97 wRC+.
That’s useful, not untouchable. He wasn’t a player who locked himself in as a middle-of-the-order pillar for the long haul.
At the same time, the early stretch of his season gave Pittsburgh plenty to like. Before a left hamstring strain in June, Horwitz was one of the club’s more productive bats, hitting .280/.386/.455 with 10 homers through 74 games. Then a concussion during his rehab assignment pushed back his return until Aug. 2, and the bat never quite looked the same after that.
That’s why the arbitration projection feels modest but important. Horwitz isn’t a realistic non-tender candidate at $2.5 million.
His on-base ability still has value, and the Pirates clearly had reasons to trust him with regular at-bats. But Super Two status means he’ll go through arbitration four times instead of the usual three before reaching free agency, and that changes the timing of everything around him.
He’s hardly the only Pirate moving toward a more expensive future. Paul Skenes is projected for $7.2 million in his first year of arbitration.
Oneil Cruz is projected for $6.3 million, Nick Gonzales for $3.1 million and Jared Jones for $2.1 million. Add Horwitz and the rest of the group together, and MLB Trade Rumors projects the Pirates’ arbitration class at roughly $28.7 million.
That still leaves room to spend. But it leaves less room to stand still.
The Pirates have spent years building around the edge they get from young players making close to the minimum. That edge is still real.
Skenes, Jones, Cruz, Gonzales and Horwitz are all inexpensive compared with what similar players can cost elsewhere. But the bill starts climbing quickly once arbitration enters the picture, and Horwitz is now on that track a year early.
That matters because the offseason needs are already obvious. Brandon Lowe is headed to free agency.
The offense still needs real middle-of-the-order help. The rotation needs depth after Pittsburgh had to lean on bullpen games down the stretch.
There are bullpen and bench decisions to make, too.
None of that disappears because Horwitz is projected to make $2.5 million. And none of it should become an excuse to hold back.
The Pirates have been waiting for the point when enough of their young talent arrived together to create a real competitive window. That moment is here.
The catch is that those players won’t stay cheap forever. Horwitz reaching arbitration early is only one example, but it’s a clear one: the clock is ticking, and the financial cushion is shrinking.
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