In March 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates made a savvy move by claiming Justin Lawrence off waivers from the Rockies. Lawrence, like many pitchers before him, struggled in Colorado, posting a 6.49 ERA over 59.2 innings in 2024. However, his transition to Pittsburgh marked a dramatic turnaround, as he posted a remarkable 0.51 ERA and 2.23 FIP in 2025, signaling a promising future.
Despite being sidelined by elbow inflammation that put him on the 60-day IL, Lawrence returned in September, albeit with limited innings-just 17.2 for the season. Now healthy, Lawrence is set to make a significant impact on the Pirates' bullpen in 2026.
Lawrence's arsenal includes a two-pitch mix, with a strategic shift in 2025 to prioritize his sweeper over his sinker. This adjustment paid off, as his sweeper boasted a 40.0% whiff rate and held opponents to a mere .114 slugging percentage. While his sinker was problematic in 2024, it improved by playing off his sweeper, reducing hard contact and sneaking in strikes with effective sequencing.
In spring training, Lawrence continued to impress with a 33.3% whiff rate and a zone-contact rate in the 98th percentile. He faced 28 batters without allowing a single barrel, showcasing his potential dominance. However, Opening Day presented a hiccup as Lawrence surrendered two homers in an inning against the Mets, partly due to defensive mishaps.
While Pittsburgh's rotation garners attention with stars like Paul Skenes and Bubba Chandler, the bullpen is also drawing eyes, especially with Dennis Santana stepping up as closer after David Bednar's departure. Lawrence, with his dynamic stuff, could soon find himself in high-leverage situations, potentially as a setup man in the eighth inning.
The key question remains whether Lawrence can maintain his form and stay healthy throughout the season. His performance thus far has certainly fueled excitement and optimism for what he can bring to the Pirates.