The Pirates have given themselves a narrow path, and the timing could hardly be worse. After a hot start to September, Pittsburgh is still stuck on the outside of a crowded NL Wild Card race, and August is the month that really put them behind the eight ball. A 12-15 record there left the Bucs with plenty of ground to make up.
That’s the part that stings, because this is not a bad team. Pittsburgh has been better than the 2025 version, especially at the plate, and it ranks sixth in starting pitcher fWAR this year. But the division around them is brutal, and the offense that looked improved has fallen off hard in the second half.
Even so, the most maddening part of this season may be the way the Pirates have let a hidden strength slip through their fingers. They’ve been one of baseball’s best teams in one-run games, which sounds like the kind of edge that can carry a club through a tight pennant chase.
Wasted the 1-run games luck this season too https://t.co/EBRLmjr83J
- Nathan Hursh (@Nathan_Hursh) September 8, 2026
Winning close games is a real skill, but it’s also where luck shows up in a big way. The Pirates have been excellent in those tight finishes, and that’s the kind of list you’d expect to see loaded with contenders. The Phillies, Dodgers, Braves, and Cubs are all in the top 10 in one-run records this season.
But there’s another layer here: Pittsburgh isn’t alone at the top, and not all of the teams doing this are built like juggernauts. The Rangers and Reds, both below .500, have been even better in one-run games than the Pirates. That’s the reminder that these outcomes can swing on thin margins.
What makes Pittsburgh’s numbers even more striking is how shaky the bullpen was early on. Before the All-Star break, the relief group ranked 23rd in ERA and had blown the fourth-most saves in the league. Pulling out one-run wins with that kind of late-inning mess is a small miracle.
The bullpen has been much better since then, posting the eighth-best ERA in the second half. And the Pirates should have more help coming in 2027, with Lake Bachar, Camilo Doval, and Luke Weaver all set to return after being added at the trade deadline. That said, even a stronger group of relievers doesn’t promise more success in these coin-flip games.
To keep stacking one-run wins, Pittsburgh will need timely hitting, a little less damage from opposing bats, and the same kind of breaks that have gone its way so far. The Pirates are set up to keep hanging around in those games.
The problem is that nothing says the luck will hold. If it doesn’t, this season could end up being remembered as the one where they had a chance to cash in and never quite did.
In Other News...
Ex-Pirates Reliever Became A Painful Wild Card What-If
Dennis Santanas year has become the kind of reminder Pirates fans know all too well about how volatile bullpen arms can be. In Pittsburgh, the right-hander struggled badly enough in 2026 to post a 6.05 ERA, and by July he was off the 40-man roster entirely, a move that seemed to close the book on his role with the club.
The frustrating part for the Pirates is what came next. After landing with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Santana found his footing almost immediately, putting together a 1.29 ERA and collecting saves in important spots, the sort of late-inning stability Pittsburgh could have used in a postseason push. It leaves the Pirates looking at a reliever whose turnaround arrived just as their own margin for error got tighter, another hard lesson in how quickly bullpen fortunes can swing. [Read more 🡒]
Pirates Suddenly Need A Lot From One Rookie At Wrigley
A late change to the rotation has put Wilber Dotel in the spotlight at Wrigley, where the Pirates will hand the rookie right-hander his first big league start on Sept. 11. Dotel has already worked in relief for Pittsburgh this season, but this is a different assignment entirely, coming after Braxton Ashcraft landed on the 15-day injured list with right-side discomfort.
The Pirates do have some coverage behind him if the outing goes sideways, with rookies Khristian Curtis and Antwone Kelly among the available arms along with middle relievers Carmen Mlodzinski and Yohan Ramrez. Still, the bigger question is how much the club can ask from a pitcher making his first start in the majors, especially in a park that tends to make every early mistake feel bigger. [Read more 🡒]
Pirates Just Lost A Young Starter At The Worst Possible Time
Braxton Ashcrafts late-season emergence has been one of the more encouraging developments for the Pirates, which made the timing of his latest setback feel especially brutal. The right-hander was placed on the 15-day injured list retroactive to September 7 because of discomfort in his throwing arm, and Pittsburgh had to react quickly by bringing up a right-hander from Triple-A Indianapolis to take his roster spot.
Manager Don Kelly said Ashcraft will not pitch again in the 2026 season, even though tests have not shown any structural damage. For a club trying to piece together its rotation down the stretch, the Pirates are now set to turn to a bullpen game for their next start, leaving one of their most promising young arms unavailable at exactly the point when they could least afford it. [Read more 🡒]