Tarik Skubal just made arbitration history - and the ripple effects could be felt far beyond Detroit.
The Tigers' ace came out on top in his arbitration hearing Thursday, securing a $32 million salary for his final year under club control. That’s a massive win for Skubal, who had been offered $19 million by the team. The decision, handed down by a three-person panel in Arizona, sends a clear message: elite pitchers with hardware and production to match are going to get paid - and paid big - even before hitting free agency.
Skubal, now a back-to-back Cy Young winner, becomes a benchmark for future arbitration cases. And one name already being thrown into that conversation? Paul Skenes.
The Pirates' 23-year-old phenom is heading into his third MLB season, and the comparisons are inevitable. Skenes debuted in May 2024, won the NL Rookie of the Year that season, and followed it up with a unanimous Cy Young campaign in 2025.
He’s not just been good - he’s been dominant. A career 1.96 ERA, back-to-back top-three Cy Young finishes, and 13.5 bWAR over his first two years tell the story.
He’s started the last two All-Star Games, and he’s done it all before turning 24.
So what does Skubal’s arbitration win mean for Skenes and the Pirates?
Well, it’s not great news for Pittsburgh fans hoping to see their ace stick around long-term. If Skenes continues on this trajectory - and there’s been zero indication he won’t - he’s going to command a massive number in arbitration.
North of $32 million isn’t just a possibility; it might be the floor. And for a small-market team like the Pirates, that kind of financial commitment has historically been a non-starter.
There’s already speculation that the 2026 season could be Skenes’ last in a Pirates uniform. With a potential lockout looming in 2027 - the year he becomes arbitration-eligible - the timing couldn’t be more precarious. If the labor situation clouds the financial outlook and Skenes is staring down a Skubal-sized payday (or bigger), the Pirates may decide to move him before they’re forced to pay up or lose him for nothing.
And here’s the thing: unlike Skubal, Skenes didn’t take a few years to hit his stride. He was elite from day one.
That makes it even harder for Pittsburgh to argue for a discount when the time comes. If he keeps this up - staying healthy, piling up strikeouts, and anchoring the rotation - he’ll be able to name his price.
And someone will pay it.
Whether that team is the Pirates remains to be seen. But if Skubal’s arbitration win is any indication, the market for top-tier pitching talent is shifting fast. And Paul Skenes is right in the middle of it.
One thing’s for sure: the price of greatness is going up.