The Cincinnati Reds just put a price tag on conviction, and it’s one the Pittsburgh Pirates ought to notice.
According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, Cincinnati has locked up right-hander Chase Burns on a seven-year, $105 million contract that runs through the 2033 season. It’s a clean guarantee - no club options, no deferred money - and it’s the biggest deal ever given to a pitcher with fewer than four years of major-league service time.
Burns has looked every bit worth the investment. The 23-year-old heads into the second half of the 2026 season with an 11-1 record, a 2.54 ERA, 118 strikeouts and 37 walks in 102.2 innings. Opponents are hitting just .206 against him, and he made his first All-Star team this year.
The stuff is loud. Burns’ four-seam fastball has averaged 97.8 mph this season and reached 100.7, and he’s leaned on his slider more than 37% of the time. He’s striking out 29.7% of hitters while keeping his walk rate at a manageable 7.9%.
That profile should sound familiar in Pittsburgh.
Jared Jones arrived in the majors with the same kind of power look: a hard-throwing right-hander whose fastball-slider mix immediately seemed built to give hitters problems. As a 22-year-old rookie in 2024, Jones posted a 4.14 ERA with 132 strikeouts and 39 walks over 121 2/3 innings. The deeper numbers were encouraging too, including a 3.97 expected ERA, a 26.2% strikeout rate and a 7.7% walk rate.
The big difference is health. Jones missed all of 2025 after internal brace surgery on his right elbow, then returned to the Pirates on May 29 of this season. Since then, Pittsburgh has handled him carefully.
His first eight starts back have been uneven on the surface - a 4.37 ERA across 35 innings - but the underlying work has been better. Jones has struck out 27.1% of the batters he’s faced, walked 7.6% and posted a 3.58 expected ERA.
He also flashed the kind of ceiling that keeps teams dreaming. Jones threw six perfect innings with eight strikeouts against the Atlanta Braves before the Pirates pulled him after 77 pitches. That outing was a reminder of what he can look like when everything clicks.
Burns’ deal is not a perfect apples-to-apples comparison. Burns is younger, healthy and pitching like a Cy Young candidate.
Jones has not yet finished a full major-league season and still has to prove his elbow can hold up under a starter’s workload. But the gap between the two pitchers is not nearly as wide as the difference in their contracts.
Burns has logged about 146 major-league innings between 2025 and 2026. Jones has thrown roughly 157 between 2024 and 2026. Neither has a long track record, but both have already shown the velocity, swing-and-miss ability and command that can anchor a rotation.
If Jones finishes this season healthy and backs it up with a full year of high-end production, a nine-figure extension would stop sounding far-fetched.
He would still need more proof than Burns because of the elbow surgery. One good stretch won’t wipe away the injury concern, and the Pirates would surely lean on that history in any talks. Jones has to show he can deliver quality innings consistently, not just flashes of dominance between workload limits.
Still, the larger lesson from Cincinnati is hard to miss. The Reds didn’t wait for every question to be answered.
Pitchers always carry risk, and Burns could get hurt next month, next season or three years from now. Cincinnati still decided the upside of buying out an ace through his prime was worth $105 million.
That should land in Pittsburgh.
The Pirates have spent years trying to build a stable of young starters that can support a contender. Paul Skenes is the headliner, but Jones remains a major part of that picture. If he gets back to his pre-injury form, Pittsburgh should be thinking about what it would take to keep him beyond his team-controlled years.
Burns has set the new benchmark in the division. Now Jones has a chance to show he belongs in that conversation - and the Pirates may eventually have to show they’re just as willing to pay for their young pitching as the Reds just did.
In Other News...
Paul Skenes Just Gave Pirates Fans Another Reason To Smile
Paul Skenes spent the MLB All-Star festivities doing what he has done so often for Pirates fans lately: giving them another reason to enjoy the moment. The young right-hander was in the middle of the leagues showcase in Philadelphia, where his presence alone has become part of the attraction, and he handled the spotlight with the same easy confidence that has made him such a compelling figure in Pittsburgh.
Along the way, Skenes also had a little fun with the kind of speculation that tends to follow stars once they start getting big-stage attention. When he crossed paths with young reporters in Yankees attire, he noticed the pinstripes and made the joke land, then later reacted with clear confusion when someone tried to label him a future Yankee. For Pirates fans, it was a small but welcome reminder that even in an event built around baseballs biggest names, Skenes still sounds very much like a player firmly in the present. [Read more 🡒]
Pirates Just Took A Wild Card Gamble Fans Will Want To Track
With the Pirates hanging around the NL Wild Card race, the front office made a small but interesting roster move by adding outfielder Robert Hassell III from Washington in a deal that cost only cash considerations or a player to be named later. It is the kind of low-risk pickup contenders often make when they are looking for extra depth without sacrificing much, especially this time of year.
Hassell, a former first-round pick who once carried a lot of prospect buzz, had been designated for assignment by the Nationals before Pittsburgh stepped in. The move gives the Pirates another name to track as they try to stay in the race, and it also hints at how they are approaching the stretch run - looking for upside wherever they can find it, even if the next step for the newcomer is still to be determined. [Read more 🡒]
Pirates Suddenly Have An Awkward Marcell Ozuna Problem
Marcell Ozuna was one of the more notable offseason additions for Pittsburgh, a one-year bet meant to give the lineup some middle-of-the-order punch. Instead, the early returns have been rough, with Ozuna sitting at a .623 OPS and eight home runs in 250 plate appearances, production that has left the Pirates with far less than they hoped when they signed him.
Now the bigger issue is what that means as the Aug. 3 trade deadline approaches. If Pittsburgh decides to sell, Ozunas performance makes him a tricky piece to move, especially when other hitters around the league are drawing more obvious interest, leaving the Pirates to sort out whether this is a player they can still count on or one whose market has already cooled off. [Read more 🡒]