The Pirates’ wait on Derek Curiel has the look of a problem, but the numbers point to something else entirely.
With the July 27 signing deadline closing in, Pittsburgh still has not finalized a deal with its No. 5 overall pick in the 2026 MLB Draft. That stands out because the club has already signed 15 of its 21 selections, and Curiel is the headliner of the class. On the surface, that kind of delay is enough to make anyone wonder what’s holding things up.
But the rest of the draft haul tells a much different story.
Curiel’s slot value at No. 5 is $8,336,500, while the Pirates have only $6,261,300 left in their bonus pool. That gap matters, but it also helps explain why this has dragged out. Pittsburgh spent aggressively elsewhere, handing Aiden Ruiz $3.5 million to keep him from Vanderbilt, giving Auburn infielder Chris Rembert $2.4 million - about $460,000 above his slot - and paying fourth-round outfielder Andruw Giles $1 million to pull him away from Oregon.
Those weren’t random splurges. They were part of the plan.
The Pirates would not have taken Curiel fifth overall if they didn’t already have a strong sense of what it would take to sign him. His selection only makes sense if the club believed it could get him done for less than the slot value, then use the savings to land players later in the draft. In that sense, the delay is less a warning sign than the final step in a broader bonus-pool strategy.
Pittsburgh also had every reason to wait on Curiel while the rest of the class came together. If another deal had fallen apart, or if a medical issue had changed the math on a different pick, the money available for Curiel could have shifted. By holding off, the Pirates kept their options open until the rest of the pool was sorted out.
Could something still change before Monday? Sure.
Until he signs, nothing is official. But the way Pittsburgh handled the rest of the draft suggests there has been a clear understanding here from the start.
The Pirates did not spend millions above slot on later picks and simply hope the top pick would go along with it.
So while Curiel’s unsigned status looks uneasy on paper, it probably reflects a draft plan that was mapped out long before the deadline started looming.
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