Tarik Skubal’s $32M Arbitration Win Just Changed the Game - and the Pirates Are Squarely in the Crosshairs
When Tarik Skubal walked out of his arbitration hearing with a record-setting $32 million salary for 2026, it wasn’t just a win for one of baseball’s best young arms - it was a seismic shift that sent shockwaves through front offices across the league. And if there’s one team that felt the tremor more than most, it’s the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Why? Because Skubal’s victory isn’t just about money.
It’s about precedent. And for a small-market team like Pittsburgh - one that’s built its future around the right arm of Paul Skenes - this ruling could be a nightmare come to life.
Let’s break it down.
Skubal Just Redefined Arbitration
Historically, arbitration has been a cost-controlled bridge between a player’s rookie deal and their first big free-agent payday. Teams get a few years of elite production at a discount, players get incremental raises based on service time and comps, and everyone plays the game.
But Skubal just flipped that script.
Not only did he beat the Tigers in arbitration - he obliterated them. Detroit came to the table offering $19 million.
Skubal’s camp asked for $32 million. The panel sided with Skubal, marking the largest arbitration salary ever awarded and smashing the previous record held by Juan Soto.
That $13 million gap? Unheard of. And more importantly, it signals that arbitration panels are now willing to fully factor in elite performance, awards, and market value - not just the usual service-time benchmarks and historical comps.
That’s a big deal. Especially for pitchers.
Especially for Cy Young winners. Especially for Paul Skenes.
The Skenes Clock Just Started Ticking Louder
Paul Skenes is everything the Pirates could’ve hoped for when they drafted him: a generational talent, a Cy Young winner, and the kind of ace you build a franchise around. But now, thanks to Skubal’s ruling, the financial framework for what that kind of pitcher earns in arbitration has changed - dramatically.
Skenes won’t hit arbitration until 2027. But the writing’s on the wall.
If he continues on his current trajectory, his arbitration path won’t be a gentle climb. It’ll be a rocket launch.
Skubal’s recent arbitration progression gives us a glimpse at what’s coming:
- 2024 (ARB1): $2.65 million
- 2025 (ARB2): $10.15 million
- 2026 (ARB3): $32 million
Skenes, with a similar (or potentially even better) résumé, could be looking at comparable - if not higher - figures. And that’s where things get uncomfortable for Pittsburgh.
A $32M Pitcher on an $85M Payroll?
Let’s be clear: the Pirates have never paid a player $32 million in a single season. Not even close.
Their entire payroll in recent years has hovered around $80-90 million. So the idea of allocating 35-40% of that to one pitcher?
It’s not just unprecedented - it’s borderline unthinkable.
And yet, that’s the world they’re now living in.
For years, teams like the Pirates have relied on arbitration to keep elite talent affordable. You draft well, develop stars, ride out six or seven seasons of below-market value, then either trade them or let them walk before the big payday hits. It’s not romantic, but it’s the reality of small-market baseball.
Skubal’s ruling just blew a hole in that model.
If Skenes continues to dominate, there’s no more hiding behind conservative arbitration projections. The comps are out the window.
Teams can no longer assume that arbitration will protect them from paying superstar prices. And players now have the leverage to push for what they’re truly worth - with a precedent to back it up.
Three Paths, None of Them Easy
So what does this mean for the Pirates? It means they’re staring down a future filled with tough choices. If Skenes’ arbitration numbers start creeping toward - or surpassing - that $30 million mark, Pittsburgh will have to pick one of three paths:
- Pay Up: Offer Skenes a massive, long-term extension that buys out his arbitration years and a chunk of free agency. This would be unprecedented for the Pirates, both in dollars and commitment.
- Trade Early: Move Skenes before his arbitration value peaks, maximizing his trade return while avoiding the financial squeeze. It’s a painful move, but one that small-market clubs have made before.
- Ride It Out and Pay the Price: Keep Skenes and absorb the payroll hit, potentially sacrificing roster depth and flexibility in the process. That’s a tough pill to swallow for a team still building toward contention.
None of these options are ideal. But all of them are now on the table - because the old rules don’t apply anymore.
The Fallout Is Just Beginning
Skubal’s arbitration win didn’t just set a new bar. It changed the entire conversation around how young stars are valued - and how much control teams really have.
For big-market clubs, it’s a headache. For small-market teams like the Pirates, it’s a crisis.
The cost-control safety net they’ve leaned on for decades just got a massive hole torn through it. And Paul Skenes, through no fault of his own, is now at the center of a financial reckoning.
The Pirates front office is undoubtedly already running the numbers, mapping out scenarios, and weighing options they hoped they wouldn’t have to consider this soon. Because thanks to one arbitration hearing in Detroit, the future in Pittsburgh just got a whole lot more complicated - and a whole lot more expensive.