The Pittsburgh Pirates aren’t trying to reinvent the wheel in 2026 - they just need to stop losing it in the final turn.
Last year, the Pirates found themselves in more tightrope games than any team in baseball: 60 one-run contests. That’s over a third of their season hanging in the balance of a single pitch, a single swing, or one defensive misstep. They went 25-35 in those games - a record that only the White Sox matched in terms of disappointment.
That’s not just bad luck. That’s the razor-thin line between being a rebuilding team with promise and a legitimate Wild Card threat.
To their credit, Pittsburgh didn’t sit still. They added Ryan O’Hearn and Brandon Lowe this offseason - two veterans who can give a much-needed jolt to an offense that ranked near the bottom of the league in runs scored last year.
The goal isn’t to become the Braves overnight. It’s to stop making three-run games feel like climbing Everest.
It’s about creating more moments where a late solo homer wins you the game instead of just tying it.
But here’s the thing: bats can only carry you so far in close games. The real drama unfolds in the late innings - the seventh, eighth, and ninth - where leads are either protected or erased, and where playoff hopes either grow or die.
Right now, that’s still the Pirates’ biggest question mark.
FanGraphs’ early projections aren’t exactly glowing when it comes to the bullpen. Gregory Soto, one of the new faces in the pen, is projected to lead the group in fWAR.
That’s promising in isolation. But dig deeper, and the cracks start to show.
The model isn’t sold on Dennis Santana. It’s lukewarm on Isaac Mattson.
It’s skeptical of Justin Lawrence. Even the relievers who helped steady the ship in 2025 are expected to regress toward the mean.
And that’s the reality with bullpens - they’re volatile by nature. One year, you’re locking down leads. The next, you’re watching them evaporate.
Still, this is an area where the Pirates have quietly built an edge. Over the past few seasons, they’ve shown a knack for finding undervalued arms and turning them into legitimate contributors.
Waiver claims have become leverage guys. Journeymen have found new life with sharper pitch shapes and better usage.
That development pipeline matters - and it’s real.
But development alone won’t be enough in 2026. Not if the Pirates want to turn the corner.
Because the truth is, this team is going to live in close games again. That’s the nature of a roster built around young starting pitching and gradual offensive growth.
You’re not blowing teams out. You’re grinding for every edge.
That means the bullpen can’t just be serviceable - it has to be a strength.
Think back to last season. How many games ended with a runner stranded at third in the ninth?
How many times did the offense finally scratch out a late run, only to see it disappear an inning later? How many Paul Skenes or Mitch Keller gems were wasted because the bullpen couldn’t hold the line?
That’s where the season turns. That’s where the difference is made.
Yes, O’Hearn and Lowe should help give the offense a little more breathing room. A two-run lead instead of one changes the calculus.
But even with those additions, this team is still going to find itself in tight spots night after night. So the bullpen has to be ready to meet the moment.
It’s on the relievers to turn those 3-2 games into wins instead of regrets. It’s on them to make the eighth inning feel routine, not like a fire drill. It’s on them to make the ninth inning feel inevitable - in a good way.
Because here’s the math: flip just eight of those one-run losses from last year, and suddenly you’re 33-27 in those games instead of 25-35. That’s an eight-win swing.
And eight wins? That’s the difference between another season of “maybe next year” and playing meaningful baseball in September.
The Pirates have already laid the groundwork. The offense is improved.
The rotation has real upside. The foundation is in place.
Now it’s on the bullpen to make sure 2026 isn’t defined by what slips away in the final innings - but by what they manage to hold onto.