The Luke Weaver deal looked like a clean win for the Pirates when the deadline passed. Pittsburgh landed the most dominant reliever truly available, and New York even kicked in a little over $8 million to help cover his salary through next season. On paper, it felt like the kind of bullpen move that could change a club’s finish.
That’s not how it has played out so far. Weaver carried a 1.84 ERA with the Mets, but that number has jumped to 6.23 in Pittsburgh. At the same time, the prospect the Pirates sent back, Sammy Stafura, has kept impressing after the trade.
That kind of split naturally raises the question of whether Ben Cherington got burned. But relievers can swing hard from one stretch to the next, even the good ones, and Weaver’s case comes with enough context to keep the panic in check.
The biggest issue for Pittsburgh is obvious: Weaver hasn’t given the club the high-leverage impact it expected, and that has not helped in the wild card race. He was supposed to be a shutdown arm. Instead, he’s become another source of frustration for Pirates fans.
Still, the numbers underneath the ERA point to a much smaller sample than the raw result suggests. Weaver has made just 14 appearances for Pittsburgh and thrown 13 innings. Nine of those outings were scoreless, so this hasn’t been a full-scale collapse every time he takes the mound.
He also brings a track record that matters. A reliever with a longer history of success gets more room to breathe during a rough patch than a less proven arm would.
There are signs this has been more bad luck than a true breakdown. Weaver’s strikeout rate has only dipped a bit, from 26.6% with the Mets to 24.1% with the Pirates. His walk rate has stayed basically steady, moving from 6.5% before the trade to 6.9% after it.
The bigger swing has come in the contact results. Weaver posted a .204 BABIP in New York, and that has shot up to .378 in Pittsburgh.
That’s a wild shift, and one that won’t last. His left on-base rate has also dropped from 82.8% to 65.9%, another number that looks more like bad fortune than a permanent change.
The one area that does deserve a closer look is the home run issue. Weaver’s rate has climbed from 0.61 HR/9 to 1.38 HR/9. That’s not new territory for him, either, since his career average is 1.33 HR/9.
There’s also the poison ivy episode from mid-August, when Weaver dealt with a severe case that even affected his sleep. That obviously didn’t help matters, and it’s not something that should hang over the evaluation going forward.
For all the ugly early returns, there’s still reason to believe the Pirates can get value from this move. Weaver remains under team control next season, which matters a lot in judging the trade as a whole. If things settle the way the numbers suggest they should, he could still team with Mason Montgomery to give Pittsburgh one of the league’s best late-inning bullpen duos in 2027.
In Other News...
Ben Cherington Just Framed The Pirates' Biggest 2027 Question
Ben Cherington used his latest turn on the Pirates Insider Show to put a broader lens on where Pittsburgh stands after 2026. He acknowledged the club made progress but still came up short of the postseason, pointing to a better run differential, stronger bullpen work after midseason changes, and the impact of several young players as signs the organization was moving in the right direction.
The bigger point, though, was the one he kept steering toward: progress only matters if it carries into 2027. Cherington stressed accountability and the need for the Pirates to keep improving, which leaves the franchise facing the same familiar test this winter and beyond - turning encouraging steps into a season that lasts deep enough to matter. [Read more 🡒]
Pirates Face A Defining 2027 Test With Their Lineup-Changing Slugger
The Pirates 2027 planning already has a clear focal point, and it starts with Brandon Lowe. Pittsburgh watched its postseason hopes disappear in 2026 when the Padres beat the Marlins, but even with the year over, the front office is now staring at a more immediate question: how hard should it push to keep the lineups top power threat? Lowe has been the kind of bat that changes the shape of an order, and his looming free agency makes him one of the most important names on the roster conversation.
There is at least some reason for optimism on Pittsburghs side. Lowe has said he is open to returning, which gives the Pirates a chance to keep a proven slugger in place rather than try to replace his production from scratch. The challenge, as always for a team trying to map out its next step, is whether interest and fit turn into a deal before another team gets involved. [Read more 🡒]
Pirates Young Core Now Carries The Weight Of 2027
The Pirates postseason chase ended in a roundabout way, with San Diegos win over Miami shutting the door before Pittsburgh ever got the chance to keep the race alive on its own terms. Even so, the season has already started to feel bigger than the standings for a club trying to turn a young core into something sturdier, and Konnor Griffins arrival became one of the clearest signs of where the franchise wants to go next. His debut, paired with the nine-year extension he signed, gave the organization a centerpiece to build around, even if injuries kept him from spending as much time on the field as the Pirates had hoped.
Spencer Horwitz offered a similar snapshot of both promise and fragility. He came out of the gate strong, then saw his season wobble after a hamstring injury, another reminder that the Pirates next phase will depend not just on talent, but on getting that talent onto the field long enough to matter. With the playoff chase over, the rest of the year becomes less about the present tense and more about finishing strong, banking some momentum, and carrying a more defined identity into 2027. [Read more 🡒]