The Pirates are headed into an offseason where payroll choices could matter just as much as roster fit, and Mitch Keller looks like the name most likely to be caught in the middle.
Keller has already come up in trade conversations before - at the 2025 deadline and again last offseason - and that possibility is back on the table now. The right-hander is the second-longest tenured Pirate behind Bryan Reynolds, but Pittsburgh is staring at a winter that could bring major change as it tries to reach its first postseason since 2015.
The money is the biggest reason Keller keeps surfacing in these discussions. He is set to make the highest salary on the team next season, with the final two seasons of his five-year, $77 million extension still ahead of him.
Keller will make $18,411,500 in 2027 and $20,411,500 in 2028 after signing the deal on Feb. 22, 2024.
That contract stands out even more when stacked against the rest of the payroll picture. Reynolds is due $14.25 million next season, while O'Hearn will make $15 million. Reynolds is in the fifth year of his eight-year, $106.75 million extension from 2023, and O'Hearn is in the final year of his two-year, $29 million contract from last offseason.
This is less about the Pirates chasing bats and more about how they want to allocate resources. Pittsburgh had a solid offense last season, so dealing Keller would be about moving his salary around the roster rather than using him to fix the lineup.
The arbitration bill is about to get heavier, too. Center fielder Oneil Cruz is heading into his second year, Paul Skenes is entering his first, and there are eight other players the club has to factor in. That could push the Pirates toward spreading Keller’s money elsewhere and possibly using it on other additions, including a new deal for second baseman Brandon Lowe.
There’s also the performance side of the equation, and it wasn’t pretty for Keller in 2026. His season ended with a right arm teres major muscle injury, which sidelined him for most of the final two months.
He opened the year well, going 4-1 with 35 strikeouts, 14 walks and a 2.86 ERA over his first eight starts and 47 innings. After that, the bottom fell out. Over his next 14 starts, Keller went 2-7, gave up 13 home runs and 53 earned runs in 68.2 innings, and finished with a 6.95 ERA in that stretch.
The underlying indicators also point in the wrong direction. His Stuff+ dropped from 107 to 94 since his 2023 All-Star season, according to Fangraphs.
His four-seam fastball has also lost velocity, falling from 95.2 mph in 2023 to 93.3 mph in 2026. Statcast shows further regression from his sinker and sweeper, with both moving from +3 run value in 2025 to -4 and -9 in 2026.
Age and injury only make the picture murkier. Keller will be 31 in 2027, and the Pirates have to decide whether they believe he can get back to the version that earned the extension in the first place.
That decision is made tougher by the rotation depth already in place. Paul Skenes, the 2025 National League Cy Young Award winner, is the headliner. Braxton Ashcraft is back after making the All-Star team in 2026, Jared Jones showed promise after returning from a long-term injury, and Bubba Chandler just finished his first full season as a starter.
Keller still brings value as the veteran in that group, the arm who can work deeper into games without the same injury concerns that come with some other pitchers. But the Pirates may decide they no longer see him in that role, or that they can cover it more cheaply.
If Keller goes, Pittsburgh could look to a left-handed starter to replace him or turn to internal options. Khristian Curtis, Wilber Dotel and Antwone Kelly are right-handers who could be in the mix, while Hunter Barco and Connor Wietgrefe are among the left-handers who could factor into the rotation next season.
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