The Pirates have a decision to make this offseason, and Brandon Lowe sits near the center of it.
Pittsburgh wants the 32-year-old back after a 2026 season that made him one of the club’s most important pieces. Lowe was the Pirates’ best hitter, and he also emerged as a key voice in the clubhouse. He’s a free agent after the 2026 season, and while that means there should be plenty of interest around the league, the Pirates may not be priced out the way they once seemed.
Jim Bowden of The Athletic recently released his top-40 free agent list for the winter, complete with team fits and contract projections. He included the Pirates as a match for Lowe and projected a three-year, $45 million deal for the infielder.
That kind of number would put Lowe at a $15 million average annual value, which would make him the second-highest-paid player on the Pirates for 2027. Bryan Reynolds and first baseman Ryan O'Hearn would be making about the same, while only Mitch Keller would be above him at roughly $18.5 million.
If Pittsburgh landed Lowe at that price, the club’s projected payroll would land around $115 million, assuming no other major moves. That would be the highest Opening Day payroll in Pirates history, but still a workable number if the goal is to push toward the postseason in 2027.
The real question is whether Lowe would take that deal. He made $11.5 million in 2026, the second club option on the six-year, $24 million extension he signed with the Tampa Bay Rays back in 2019. After the season he just put together, he could have a stronger market than the Pirates are hoping for.
And there’s reason to believe the market could get aggressive. Bowden also listed the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres as fits, and both clubs have operated with much larger payrolls in recent years. Lowe could very well reach $20 million AAV, which would force Pittsburgh to stretch if it wants to stay in the race.
The Pirates could also try to change the conversation by adding a fourth year, keeping Lowe through age 36. That would come with obvious risk, since he probably won’t produce at this level for the full length of the deal. But after what he did in 2026, the case for bringing him back is strong.
Lowe hit 35 home runs, the most by any Pirate since Josh Bell hit 37 in 2019. He also led all MLB second basemen in home runs, slugging percentage (.493) and OPS (.824).
And it wasn’t just the bat. Lowe completely flipped his defensive story, going from one of the worst fielding second basemen last season to a National League Gold Glove Award finalist this year.
For the Pirates, that combination makes the fit obvious. A three-year, $45 million deal should be the starting point if they get the chance. But with other teams in the mix, the bidding may not stay that tidy for long.
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