Nearly 12 years after Francisco Liriano signed the biggest free-agent contract in Pirates history, that deal is still the standard Pittsburgh keeps tripping over.
Liriano’s three-year, $39 million agreement from December 2014 remains the franchise record for a free-agent signing, and that fact hangs over every conversation about Brandon Lowe. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel projects Lowe for four years and $80 million, a figure that would force the Pirates to more than double their current high-water mark if they wanted to keep him.
That’s the uncomfortable backdrop here: the discussion isn’t just about whether Lowe is worth the money. It starts with whether the Pirates are willing to go where they have never gone before.
A $20 million average annual value would represent a massive leap for a club that has spent more than a decade operating far below that level. The Pirates have already made a one-year, $23.15 million qualifying offer, which shows some willingness to spend. The real question is whether they’re prepared to make a longer commitment that would reset the top of their payroll history.
And Lowe has given them a pretty compelling case to consider it. He hit 35 home runs, drove in 96 runs and posted an .824 OPS in 2026. That kind of production at second base is not easy to replace, and Pittsburgh would be staring at a major lineup hole if he walked.
The team even highlighted that power recently, posting a video of all 35 of Lowe’s home runs from the season. Still, the bigger issue remains the same one that has followed the franchise for years: can the Pirates actually push past the ceiling that has defined so many of their winters?
If they want to keep Lowe, they’d be paying for a 32-year-old second baseman on a four-year deal, which comes with obvious risk in the later seasons. But the alternative is familiar, too. The Pirates could let another impact player go and try to explain how they’ll make up the difference somewhere else.
That’s the larger problem. A record-setting contract would only be the beginning. Pittsburgh would still need to build around Lowe, patch the other holes and put together enough depth to survive a season.
For now, the projection has done more than put a number on Lowe. It has exposed just how small the Pirates’ financial history still looks.
In Other News...
Pirates Just Entered The Offseason That Will Define This Core
The Pirates 2026 season gave the front office something it has been chasing for years: real progress that showed up both in the standings and on the scoreboard. Pittsburgh finished sixth in runs scored and won 11 more games than it did in 2025, enough to make the early conversation around the club feel a little different heading into the winter. For a team trying to turn a promising core into an actual contender, that kind of step forward matters, especially when it comes with national recognition and a sense that the arrow is finally pointing the right way.
ESPNs early 2027 power rankings reflected that shift by placing Pittsburgh inside the top 10, but the bigger question is what comes next. Young talent like Konnor Griffin and Esmerlyn Valdez gives the Pirates a foundation worth believing in, yet the roster still has obvious areas that need attention if the club wants to stay on a playoff track. Development can carry part of the load, but it cannot be the whole plan, and this offseason looks like the one that will show whether Pittsburgh is ready to supplement its youth or simply ask it to do even more. [Read more 🡒]
Pirates Are Taking A Risk With Derek Curiels Development
The Pirates have taken a patient approach with Derek Curiel since drafting him in the first round for 2026, and the delay has already become part of the story. Nearly four months after the draft, the young outfielder still has not appeared in a professional game, with the organization leaning into a development plan that puts rehabilitation and long-term body work ahead of any rush to get him into competition.
Curiels broken ankle is only part of the equation, because Pittsburgh also wants him to add strength and refine his swing before he starts playing for real. It is a familiar method for this front office, one that has been used before with prospects the club believes need more physical maturation, but it also comes with an obvious tradeoff: every month spent in the training room is a month without game action, and that can matter for a player whose next step is still being carefully mapped out. [Read more 🡒]
Pirates Face A Huge Brandon Lowe Question After His Breakout Year
Brandon Lowes first season in Pittsburgh gave the Pirates exactly the kind of middle-of-the-order punch they have been chasing. Acquired in a trade last offseason, he quickly became the clubs most dangerous power bat and the centerpiece of a lineup that needed one, enough to put him in the mix for league honors at second base after a season that rewrote the teams home run marks.
Now the bigger question is whether the Pirates can keep him around long enough for that breakout to mean something beyond one strong year. Lowe is a free agent this offseason, and Pittsburgh has already extended a qualifying offer, leaving the club in the familiar spot of weighing short-term production against the cost of bringing back a player who changed the shape of its offense. [Read more 🡒]