PITTSBURGH -- September has arrived with the Pirates still mathematically alive, but barely. After going 12-15 in August, Pittsburgh sits at 67-71 and faces a steep climb if it wants to snap the longest postseason drought in the National League.
FanGraphs gives the Pirates just a 1.6% chance to make the playoffs as the calendar flips to Sept. 1.
That number looked a lot different at the All-Star break, when Pittsburgh was three games over .500 and FanGraphs had its postseason odds at 40.1%. Even with the margin for error gone, there’s still plenty worth watching down the stretch.
The biggest name on the board is Paul Skenes, and the final month could tell the story of where his 2026 season goes from here. His first two Major League seasons were already on a rare track, drawing a comparison to Hall of Famer Tom Seaver. Seaver had a 2.47 ERA, 375 strikeouts and a 129 ERA+ in his comparable run; Skenes, with more than 200 fewer innings, topped that with a 1.96 ERA, 386 strikeouts and a 220 ERA+.
This year has not matched that level. Skenes enters September with a 3.79 ERA and a 115 ERA+.
Still, there were signs last week in San Diego that he might be turning a corner, with six scoreless innings and a velocity bump. September will show whether that was the start of a rebound.
Another major question is whether Konnor Griffin can help wake up an offense that has faded without him. Griffin’s left ring finger injury on July 5 has left Pittsburgh leaning on Jared Triolo and trade acquisition Jacob Gonzalez at shortstop, and the results have been rough. The two have combined to hit .220 with a .597 OPS, and the Pirates’ combined shortstop OPS ranks 10th-worst in the sport.
Griffin isn’t going to rescue the entire season by himself, but his presence matters. He was the game’s top prospect for a reason, and before his most recent injured list stint he was showing exactly why.
In the eight games between those absences, Griffin hit .306, stole six bases and posted a 115 WRC+. Even beyond the numbers, there’s something to be said for seeing him finish his rookie year strong after dealing with adversity.
Brandon Lowe also has a personal milestone hanging in the balance. Since 2020, no Major League second baseman has hit more homers than Lowe’s 162, but he has never reached 100 RBIs in a season. His high-water mark is 99, set in 2021, when he finished 10th in American League MVP voting.
He begins the month with 82 RBIs, so the number is within reach if September goes right. Lowe had 20 RBIs in June, but he has only 25 combined over the last two months. With free agency looming, maybe there’s enough fuel left for him to finally push past 100.
Then there’s Carmen Mlodzinski, whose season has taken a winding path that clearly hasn’t worked out the way either side wanted. He has moved from the rotation to the bullpen and back again, only to land in a bulk-relief role on days when Lake Bachar opens. The Pirates had just started to find something with him in relief before shifting him back into starts, and the results since then have been uneven.
The split between the two roles tells the story. Mlodzinski owns a 5.85 ERA as a starter and a 2.38 ERA out of the bullpen.
He has been a dependable reliever and a below-average starter, and this bulk-role setup may be where he finishes the season. If that leads to more success, it could point to a permanent bullpen move, or possibly an offseason change elsewhere.
His outing Saturday in St. Louis offered the clearest version yet of that possible solution, along with another strong showing from the bullpen.
And then there’s the question that overshadows all the others: can the Pirates still pull off a postseason miracle? They entered Monday six games behind the final National League Wild Card spot, with four teams ahead of them.
To get to .500, they need to go 14-10 over their last 24 games. To reach 86 wins, which could be enough for the last NL Wild Card berth, they would need to finish 19-5.
That’s a long shot. But the Pirates have shown some encouraging signs in San Diego and St.
Louis. Skenes looked more like himself.
The bullpen has been one of the best in baseball since the Trade Deadline. Griffin adds impact across the field.
It might all click just in time, and still end up being too little, too late.
In Other News...
Pirates Catching Depth Move Could Hint At Something Bigger
The Pirates added another name to their catching mix this week, signing Jose Herrera to a minor league contract and sending him to Triple-A Indianapolis. Herrera had spent time in the Texas Rangers organization and also played in the Mexican League after his release, but his best-known work has come in the majors with the Arizona Diamondbacks. For Pittsburgh, it is the kind of depth move teams make when they want another experienced hand close to the big league picture.
Herrera is expected to help stabilize the catching inventory in the Pirates minor league system, giving the organization some insurance behind the plate. Moves like this do not usually draw much attention on their own, but they can say plenty about how a club wants to protect itself over a long season, especially at a position where bodies can disappear quickly. [Read more 🡒]
Pirates Suddenly Have A Tough Decision On A Forgotten Top Pick
Lonnie White Jr. has pushed his way back onto the Pirates radar in a real way this season, and its not just because he was once viewed as one of the organizations more notable young talents. After years of uneven development, the former top prospect has put together a strong 2025 across Hi-A and Double-A, showing the kind of production that can change how a club views a player in a hurry. His combination of power and speed has stood out, and the overall line has made it hard to keep treating him like a forgotten name in the system.
For Pittsburgh, the question now is less about whether White has re-entered the conversation and more about how to handle the next roster crunch. Adding him to the 40-man roster would be a way to keep him out of Rule 5 Draft risk, even if he is not yet ready for a big-league call-up. It is the sort of decision teams prefer to make before the deadline pressures pile up, and it gives the Pirates a small but meaningful test of how much they still believe in a player whose stock looked far more uncertain not long ago. [Read more 🡒]
Pirates Suddenly Have A Bullpen Problem At The Worst Time
The Pirates added another layer of uncertainty to a bullpen that has already been asked to do a lot, placing right-handed reliever Kirby Yates on the 15-day injured list retroactive to Aug. 31 because of a right shoulder impingement. Pittsburgh moved quickly to cover the opening, recalling rookie right-hander Khristian Curtis from Triple-A Indianapolis before its series finale against the Giants, a sign the club needed fresh arms available right away.
Wilber Dotel also got the call back up as part of the same round of roster shuffling, while Evan Sisk was optioned to Indianapolis. The timing is less than ideal for a Pirates team trying to keep its late-game options intact, and Yates injury leaves the staff waiting to see how deep the bullpen hole becomes before the next stretch of games really settles in. [Read more 🡒]