The Pittsburgh Pirates are heading into a long offseason with a stack of arbitration decisions waiting for them, and MLB Trade Rumors has already laid out what that bill could look like for 2027.
Using Matt Swartz’s model, which has been in place for the past decade and is usually close to the mark, the outlet projected salaries for the Pirates’ arbitration-eligible players. Pittsburgh has 10 such players this winter, with two in their second year of eligibility and eight reaching arbitration for the first time.
The second-year group is center fielder Oneil Cruz and right-handed reliever Yohan Ramírez. The first-timers are right-handers Jared Jones, Carmen Mlodzinski and Paul Skenes; catchers Henry Davis and Endy Rodríguez; and infielders Nick Gonzales, Spencer Horwitz and Jared Triolo.
The Pirates will try to keep all 10 this offseason, though a lockout and a new CBA could alter the picture.
At the top of the list are Skenes and Cruz, the two players projected to land the biggest salaries. Skenes is forecast at $7.2 million, a figure that would put him near the record for a first-year arbitration player. Dallas Keuchel’s $7.25 million in 2016 remains the benchmark.
Skenes did not look like his 2025 National League Cy Young self all the time in 2026, but he still piled up 200 strikeouts and made the All-Star team.
Cruz is coming off his best major league season, hitting .280.368/.486 with an .854 OPS, 20 homers and 30 stolen bases. The problem was availability: a left hand fracture cost him two months, and he appeared in only 97 games. After avoiding arbitration in 2026 on a $3.3 million deal, he is projected to jump to $6.3 million.
Ramírez, meanwhile, enters his second year of arbitration after avoiding the process in 2026 with an $825,000 contract. He made just $45,000 more than the MLB minimum salary, then turned in a strong 2026 season with a 2.61 ERA over 66 games and 85 innings. He struck out 102 and walked 44, held hitters to a .188 batting average and posted a 1.19 WHIP, all of which points to a raise to about $1.5 million.
Jones is projected at $2.1 million after finally returning to the mound in 2026. He missed all of 2025 following internal brace surgery and did not get back until late May. His season started unevenly, but he closed strong enough to finish as the NL Pitcher of the Month for September.
Mlodzinski spent part of the year in the rotation before shifting to the bullpen after Jones came back. He logged a career-high 123.0 innings and continues to give Pittsburgh options, whether that means starting or working in higher-leverage spots.
Horwitz, a Super Two player because he ranks in the top 22 percent of players between two and three years of service time, is projected at $2.5 million. His season was a tale of two stretches: excellent before a hamstring injury and concussion, then one of the worst hitting runs in baseball over the final two months.
Gonzales had his best year at the plate, finishing sixth in baseball with a .303 batting average. Still, he was also the worst defensive third baseman.
Triolo’s offense lagged, as he hit .238/.307/.302 with a .609 OPS, but he remains Pittsburgh’s best defensive infielder and can handle all four infield spots.
Davis again struggled as a hitter, slashing .172/.272/.313 for a .585 OPS, which leaves his future with the Pirates in question. Even so, his defense remains a strength, and being Paul Skenes’ personal catcher carries weight.
Rodríguez gave the Pirates a look at what he can do with the bat, hitting .267/.373/.467 for an .840 OPS in 45 games. But his season ended with another major injury, as he underwent surgery on the left hip labrum and will not begin baseball activities until March-May 2027.
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