Oneil Cruz has become a useful reminder for the Pirates as the trade deadline approaches: prospect value is never as safe as it looks.
Cruz is now being cited by J.J. Cooper as part of Baseball America’s All-Time Trade Deadline Prospects Team, a nod to the prospects dealt at the deadline over the last decade who went on to find the most success. That recognition carries a little extra weight in Pittsburgh, because Cruz’s own path started with a deadline deal.
The Pirates landed him from the Dodgers in 2017 in exchange for left-handed reliever Tony Watson. Cruz was only 18 at the time, but he was already the Dodgers’ No. 23 prospect and came with the kind of massive tools that make teams dream big, even if the floor was just as obvious.
Watson, for his part, was exactly what the Dodgers wanted in a rental. He finished with a 2.70 ERA down the stretch and helped Los Angeles reach the World Series, where it lost in seven games to the Houston Astros.
That history matters now because Pittsburgh is again weighing whether to move talent for immediate help. There’s been talk that trading Cruz could help the Pirates address a need such as bullpen help without pushing payroll higher. Beyond the payroll debate, though, Cruz’s career is its own argument for why clubs should not treat prospects like untouchable assets.
The 27-year-old was in the middle of the best season of his career before a fractured hand in June interrupted it. Even so, the flaws are still part of the package.
He remains a negative defensively, and his 34.6% strikeout rate leaves real questions about how high the ceiling can go. He’s a good player, but not the kind of sure thing that should make a front office freeze.
The Pirates’ farm system has also changed since the season began. Baseball America ranked Pittsburgh No. 1 in its preseason farm rankings, but the club has dropped to No. 12 in the July update. A big reason is graduation, with Konnor Griffin and Bubba Chandler helping carry the system before moving on.
Even after that slide, the Pirates still have two consensus top-100 prospects in Seth Hernandez and Edward Florentino. Baseball America also pointed to the organization’s strength in power, writing: "Power. OK, it’s a bit of a cheat, but between Seth Hernandez’s heater, and Reinold Navarro and Antwone Kelly’s fastballs, outfielder Edward Florentino’s power potential, Wyatt Sanford’s elevate and celebrate swing and Esmerlyn Valdez’s present power in Pittsburgh, the top of the Pirates ‘system is filled with prospects with top-tier power potential,"
That doesn’t even account for Murf Gray’s recent surge.
The larger point is that Pittsburgh has plenty of young players with traits other teams want. But those traits are not guarantees. Some of the flashiest arms and bats in a system never become the stars people project them to be, and Cruz is a good example of how uncertain that path can be.
That’s why the Pirates can afford to be selective, but not timid. Ben Cherington may want to keep Hernandez and Florentino out of any talks, and that makes sense. After that, though, the rest of the system should be in play if the return helps the big league club.
If Pittsburgh wants to act like a contender, it has to spend prospect capital like one. That means giving up something real to get something real back.
In Other News...
Pirates Make Another Bullpen Change As Wild Card Pressure Builds
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For Kelly, it is his third shot at the major league level, and the Pirates are hoping this one sticks a little longer as they look for reliable outs in a crowded race. The move also shows how fluid the bullpen picture has become, with every roster decision carrying a little more weight as the standings tighten. [Read more 🡒]
Pirates Draw A Hard Line On One Prospect At Deadline
The Pirates are expected to be active at the trade deadline, with bullpen help near the top of the shopping list and other prospects potentially in play. But one name appears to be off limits for now: Seth Hernandez, the right-hander viewed as one of the organizations most important long-term arms and a key piece of what Pittsburgh hopes will be its future rotation.
Hernandez has already drawn interest from other clubs, which is hardly a surprise given his pedigree and ceiling, but Pittsburgh is making clear that it would take a major league return to even consider moving him. The kind of player the Pirates would need back would have to fit more than a short-term need, and that helps explain why Hernandez remains in a different category from the rest of the deadline conversation. [Read more 🡒]
Pirates Draw A Line On One Prospect As Bullpen Pressure Builds
With the trade deadline approaching, the Pirates are still looking for help in the bullpen as they try to keep their postseason push on track. Pittsburgh has been tied to plenty of relief options, but the organization is also trying to protect the long view, which means every conversation has to balance immediate need against what comes next.
One name that keeps coming up in that equation is Seth Hernandez, and the sense around the industry is that the Pirates are drawing a firm line there. Even with outside interest and the kind of market that can tempt a club to listen, Pittsburgh views him as too important to move lightly, especially while the front office weighs whether the right kind of major-league return is even out there. [Read more 🡒]