Paul Skenes is about to walk into the most demanding start of his Pirates career, and the timing leaves no wiggle room.
Pittsburgh sends him to the mound against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on Sept. 12, with the Pirates clinging to a 74-74 record and sitting five games out in the National League Wild Card race. With only 15 games left, every outing carries extra weight, and this one comes with more on the line than any Skenes has thrown so far.
That matters because this version of Skenes has not looked like the dominant force Pittsburgh saw in his first two seasons, when he won both the National League Rookie of the Year and Cy Young Awards. In 29 starts this year, he is 10-11 with a 3.83 ERA across 155.0 innings, along with 181 strikeouts, 45 walks, a .231 batting average allowed and a 1.15 WHIP.
The rough stretch really took hold in mid-May. Over his last 20 starts, he is 4-9 with a 4.71 ERA, and consistency has been hard to find since then. He has been dealing with mechanical issues while also deliberately dialing back his four-seam fastball velocity as he weighs his long-term health.
There was a low point in that process when he dipped below 96 mph against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot Park on Aug. 11, the slowest he has ever thrown. But after getting a week off in August, he has started to look sharper, especially in two of his last three outings.
Against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park on Aug. 25, Skenes worked six scoreless innings, gave up three hits and struck out four in a 1-0 Pirates win. He followed that with 5.1 scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Angels at PNC Park on Sept. 6, allowing four hits, one hit by pitch and one walk in another 1-0 win.
His velocity is back where he wants it, but the command still isn’t fully there, especially with his off-speed pitches. He’s closer to form, but not all the way there yet.
The challenge on the other side is as difficult as it gets. Chicago is 82-65 and holds the second NL Wild Card spot. The Cubs also beat the Pirates 12-2 in the series opener on Sept. 11, punishing the Pittsburgh rookie pitching trio of Wilber Dotel, Khristian Curtis and Antwone Kelly.
The Cubs lineup has been one of baseball’s best all season, leading the sport with 204 home runs, 792 runs and 748 RBI, while also sitting first in slugging percentage at .431 and OPS at .771. Pete Crow-Armstrong gives them a potential NL MVP in center field, and Seiya Suzuki and Alex Bregman add more power in the middle of the order.
Skenes has already seen this group twice at PNC Park. Pittsburgh lost 7-2 on May 28, when he allowed three runs but only one earned over 5.1 innings and struck out 10, and the Cubs rolled 11-0 on July 25, when he gave up five earned runs in 5.1 innings.
Now the Pirates need him to solve that lineup and keep their postseason push alive. If he can quiet the Cubs in this spot, it would give Pittsburgh the kind of lift it has been chasing all month.
In Other News...
Pirates Lose A Productive Young Bat At The Worst Time
Esmerlyn Valdez had been one of the more productive young bats in the Pirates system, so his move to the 10-day injured list lands at an awkward time for a club trying to keep options open in the outfield. The Pirates made the roster move after Valdez strained his left hamstring while running to first base, and while the injury sent him to the shelf, there is still no clear sense yet of how long he might be out.
Ronny Simon was summoned from Triple-A Indianapolis to fill the open spot on the active roster, giving Pittsburgh another utility option while it waits for more information on Valdez. For now, the concern is less about the replacement and more about what the Pirates lost, since any extended absence from a young hitter with momentum can change the look of the roster quickly. [Read more 🡒]
Pirates Need Jake Mangum Again After Another Costly Outfield Loss
The Pirates were already juggling their outfield depth, and now they have another opening to cover after placing rookie Esmerlyn Valdez on the 10-day injured list with a left hamstring strain. Pittsburgh recalled Ronny Simon from Triple-A Indianapolis to fill the roster spot, but the more immediate effect is on the alignment behind him, where Valdez had been providing a real offensive boost even while working through some growing pains.
Manager Don Kelly said Jake Mangum is expected to see more time in the outfield, a familiar sort of assignment for a player who has already stepped in for injured teammates this season. For a club trying to keep its lineup steady through another setback, Mangums ability to plug holes again could end up mattering as much as any single bat in the short term. [Read more 🡒]
Pirates Top Prospects Just Moved One Step From A Title
The Pirates High-A affiliate is still playing meaningful baseball, and several of the organizations top prospects have helped keep Greensboro in the hunt. The Grasshoppers advanced to the South Atlantic League Championship Series after taking their Division Series over Frederick, with Edward Florentino, Tony Blanco Jr., Wyatt Sanford, Reinold Navarro and Levi Sterling all contributing during the playoff run.
Greensboro now gets a chance to go one step farther, with Winston-Salem waiting in the Championship Series set to begin Sept. 13. For a Pirates farm system that has been trying to stockpile both talent and winning habits, this is the kind of stage that gives young players a little extra pressure and a little more visibility, especially with so many familiar names still in the mix. [Read more 🡒]