Paul Skenes heads into Tuesday night with a familiar challenge and an unfamiliar problem.
The challenge is obvious: San Diego’s lineup has been rolling. The problem is Skenes himself, who has slipped from the level that made him look like a Cy Young force.
His fastball has lost some life, his walks are up and the ERA has climbed to a career-high 3.95. Whatever the reason - fatigue, hitters adjusting, or trouble finding his command - the Pirates know the right-hander needs to be sharper.
Skenes put it plainly after his last start against the Tigers: “Grinding is a relative thing,” he said after his last start against the Tigers. “I would say that in ‘24 and ‘25, I grinded at times too,” Skenes said.
“So I think it's how you view it more than anything. I've been learning a lot, and I'll continue to learn a lot.
Just got to keep going.”
He’ll get that next chance Tuesday night in San Diego at 9:40 p.m. ET, and the assignment is a tough one.
The Padres have won 21 of their last 29 games dating back to July 24 and have pushed themselves well ahead of the Pirates in the National League Wild Card race. At the plate, they’ve been one of the best teams in baseball since the break, entering Monday with an MLB-best 125 wRC+ and sharing the National League lead in OPS at .801 with the Cubs.
This is the kind of opponent that usually doesn’t rattle Skenes. He’s 13-6 with a 2.64 ERA in his career against teams with records above .500, a pretty clear sign that bigger stages and stronger lineups haven’t been much of a problem for him. That’s part of what makes this stretch so striking.
The second half has been especially rough. Over his last six starts, Skenes has put up a 5.28 ERA. He’s allowed four walks in three of those outings and has managed only one quality start in that span.
There’s also been a workload issue. In each of his last two starts, Skenes was held under 85 pitches. Pirates manager Don Kelly said they weren’t going to push him past that mark against the Tigers after he had seven days off between that outing and the one before it, when he threw only 65 pitches against the Marlins.
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