The Pittsburgh Pirates arrive in Miami with little room left to breathe, and Paul Skenes is right in the middle of it all. Their series opener against the Marlins carries the kind of weight that can change the tone of a season, because for Pittsburgh this is no longer about building toward something later. It is about answering now.
Skenes, the reigning National League Cy Young winner, is trying to stop a rough stretch that has looked nothing like his usual standard. In his last three starts, he is 0-2 with an 8.16 ERA. Zoom out a little farther and the picture gets even messier: a 5.20 ERA over his last 15 starts, during which the Pirates are just 3-12 when he pitches.
July was especially rough. He put up a 6.25 ERA across six starts that month, and one of those outings came against the Phillies, when he gave up seven earned runs in four innings - the worst start of his young career. There was a three-game stretch in mid-July when Pittsburgh won all three of his starts, but that was sandwiched between three other outings in which he allowed at least five earned runs.
The strikeouts are still there, which is why this doesn’t feel like a total collapse. But some of the other markers are slipping.
Skenes’ fastball has averaged 97 mph this season, down from 98.2 mph a year ago, and he has not thrown a single 100-mph pitch this year after reaching 100 of them last season. His command has also backed up.
Over his last 12 starts, his walk rate has risen to 3.2 per nine innings, up from 1.7 over his first 11 starts this year. Last Wednesday, he issued four walks in five innings.
That downturn has hit a Pirates team already sliding hard. After dropping a weekend series to the New York Mets, Pittsburgh is 58-62 and has now lost six straight series. The club has dropped 14 of its last 20 games and enters this set 5.5 games behind the final National League Wild Card spot, with five teams to jump.
The playoff numbers are brutal, too. Fangraphs had the Pirates at 47.6% a few weeks ago, but that figure has fallen to 7.7%.
ESPN’s projection is only slightly better at 9.0%. The message from the standings and the models is the same: the Pirates are still alive, but the cushion is gone.
Miami makes the stakes even sharper. The Marlins are 60-59 and sitting in the same wild-card conversation, so this is not just about trying to win a series.
It is about avoiding another loss to a direct competitor while trying to make up ground elsewhere. That’s a dangerous place to be.
Manager Don Kelly put it plainly after a recent loss: "Frustrating loss... We’ve got to find a way to bounce back... and have a big series coming up in Miami".
That’s the challenge in front of Pittsburgh now. A strong Skenes outing would do more than grab one game.
It would give a club that badly needs one some life, some rhythm, and a reason to believe the season still has a pulse. A series win would help the Pirates claw back in the race and take a step toward flipping the story.
A sweep would not end everything, but it would be a heavy blow.
For now, the math is ugly and the pressure is real. The Pirates need a turnaround, and they need it fast.
In Other News...
Pirates Fans Face The Real Question Behind Pittsburghs Spending Debate
The Pirates long-running spending debate is about more than just how much money gets pushed into the roster. Since Ben Cherington took over as general manager in 2019, the club has piled up losing seasons and still hasnt reached the playoffs, which has only sharpened the frustration around a front office that has not turned payroll decisions into on-field progress. Recent roster moves have only added to the conversation, because they show how even a little more spending does not automatically translate into a better team.
A salary cap and floor would change the financial framework around the sport and give clubs like Pittsburgh a different set of constraints and opportunities, but it would not answer the bigger question facing Pirates fans. The real issue is whether better management can be trusted to make smarter choices with more resources, because increased payroll alone has already proven it does not guarantee success. [Read more 🡒]
Oneil Cruz Is Forcing A Tough Pirates Decision At The Worst Time
Oneil Cruz is back on the field with Double-A Altoona as he works his way back from fractures in his left hand, and the Pirates are keeping a close eye on every step. With Pittsburgh trying to find some offensive rhythm, the timing of his rehab assignment matters almost as much as the results, because Cruz is one of the few players on the roster who can change a game with his bat, his speed and his defense in center field.
The concern, of course, is that he has not yet looked fully in sync at the plate during this minor league tune-up, which leaves the Pirates weighing whether to rush him back into a lineup that badly needs a lift or give him more time to round into form. It is a delicate call at the worst possible moment for a club already searching for answers, and how they handle Cruz now could shape both their immediate offense and the bigger picture in center field. [Read more 🡒]
Bryan Reynolds Is Becoming A Bigger Problem For The Pirates Lineup
Bryan Reynolds second-half slide has become one of the bigger reasons the Pirates offense has stalled, and it comes at a time when the lineup can least afford another long stretch without production from a middle-order bat. After a strong first half, Reynolds has not matched that level since the break, with the drop showing up not just in average, but in the power and plate discipline that usually help anchor his at-bats.
The broader problem is that his downturn has lined up with a teamwide offensive dip, which has left Pittsburgh searching for answers around him as much as from him. Reynolds and the Pirates would both stand to gain if the lineup around him starts giving him more support and if some injured hitters can work their way back later in the season. [Read more 🡒]