Pittsburgh has plenty of pitching names that grab the spotlight, but Jared Jones is starting to look like the kind of arm that can sneak into the conversation and stay there.
The Pirates took Jones in the second round of the 2020 MLB Draft, and he moved quickly enough to reach the club’s Opening Day roster in 2024. He handled himself well in that rookie season before a lat strain slowed him down late. Then came a lost year in 2025, when elbow fatigue eventually led to UCL surgery and wiped out his entire season.
Jones was also forced to miss the start of the 2026 season, but he finally made his debut on May 29. Since then, he has put together a 2-1 record with a 4.05 ERA over 40 innings, which is solid enough on the surface. The deeper numbers, though, suggest there may be more in the tank.
Bleacher Report’s Tim Kelly sees Jones as a possible second-half breakout, and he pointed to the underlying metrics as the reason for the optimism.
"Another guy likely to get improved results for the Buccos is righty Jared Jones, who has pitched to a 4.05 ERA across his first nine starts of 2026... So why are we bullish on what's to come for Jones? Not only did he have some impressive flashes across 22 starts during his rookie season of 2024, but both his 3.30 expected ERA and 3.23 FIP suggest he's been better so far in 2026 than his traditional back-of-the-baseball-card stats would lead you to believe."
That gap between the ERA and the expected numbers matters. Jones’ xERA and FIP sit lower than his actual ERA, which points to the kind of noise that can come from bad luck, shaky defense or rough sequencing.
And with the Pirates trying to hang around the wild card race, a sharper second half from Jones would give them another important arm behind the bigger names in the rotation.
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