Paul Skenes is still pitching well enough to rank among the game’s best, but the version that looked untouchable in his first two seasons has slipped just enough to show up everywhere at once.
That’s the story as he heads into his first start of August on Wednesday with an ERA approaching 4.00, a number that looks jarring next to the sub-2.00 marks he posted in each of his first two seasons. Skenes became the first qualified pitcher age 23 or younger to do that since Dwight Gooden in 1984-85.
This year, the edge has dulled. Not all at once, and not because of one obvious flaw.
It’s been a stack of small changes: a little less velocity, a little less movement, a little less command, more balls in the air and a defense that hasn’t backed him up as well.
The fastball is the clearest place to start. Skenes averaged 98.8 mph as a rookie in 2025 and 98.2 mph last season.
This year, that number is down to 96.9 mph, and it has trended downward over the course of the season. Skenes shrugged off the concern during the All-Star break in Philadelphia.
"I think it's funny [reporters] only ask [about velocity] when I don’t have a good outing,” said Skenes during the All-Star break in Philadelphia. "...
I don’t think velocity is something I need to pitch well. I think it’s probably the first time in my career the velo has kinda dipped.
It’s not something that I’m stressed over at all. I’m healthy.
I’m feeling good and still pitching at a high level."
Still, the drop matters. Nearly 2 mph is not a small thing at this level.
MLB hitters have been batting .219 against 99 mph fastballs over the last two seasons, compared with .242 against 97 mph fastballs. Skenes’ own fastballs tell a similar story: opponents hit .209 against them last year, and .231 this season.
There’s also the shape of the pitch to consider. Coming out of LSU, one of the few concerns on Skenes’ scouting profile was the fastball’s below-average vertical movement.
When the velocity dips, that shape can become easier to square up. His fastball spin has also fallen by about 70 rpm, which means less spin-based movement.
That has rippled through the rest of the arsenal. For a pitcher built to overpower hitters, less fastball life can drag down everything else.
The run values on Skenes’ sinker and changeup have gone negative for the first time in his career. His Stuff+ has taken a sharp step back too, from 110 last season to 98 this year.
Two pitcher trainers and biomechanical experts at Driveline Baseball reviewed his mechanics, and their take was that the delivery has been cleaner lately than it was earlier in the year.
"Earlier in the year, he was stepping across his body a lot and cutting himself off."
"He has some mechanical issues in his delivery, but they seem to be getting cleaned up since the start of this season."
That leaves open the possibility that the velocity isn’t gone for good. If it comes back, that would be a huge development for Pittsburgh’s stretch run.
The contact quality has changed as well. Skenes is allowing harder contact, and the ball is staying in the air more often.
His groundball rate has fallen from 51.1% as a rookie to 39.7% this season, and he’s already given up 13 home runs, more than in either of his first two full seasons. Fewer grounders also means fewer double plays and fewer easy ways out of jams.
The pitch-level numbers point in the same direction. Hitters are missing his breaking balls by less this year, with average whiff distance down from 4.9 inches last season to 3.6 inches.
His arm angle has also climbed to 26 degrees from 23 degrees in each of the previous two seasons. It’s still a low slot by most standards, but it’s another small shift that may be part of the picture.
Command has slipped too, though not dramatically. Skenes’ walk rate is up to a career-worst 6.3%, still a strong figure but a step back.
His Command+ is 108, down from 112 last season and 110 in 2024. He has also thrown a smaller share of his pitches in the strike zone, dropping from 51% in each of his first two seasons to 46% this year.
That suggests a pitcher who may be trusting his stuff a little less in the zone and nibbling more, which can hurt efficiency.
That matters because Skenes said before last season that he wanted to become more efficient and eventually reach 240 innings in a season. Instead, that goal has moved the other way.
The Pirates’ defense hasn’t helped. Over the offseason, they chose to give up some glove work in exchange for a stronger lineup, and that tradeoff has helped them in the NL Wild Card race.
It hasn’t done Skenes many favors. His xERA is 2.94, nearly a full run lower than his actual 3.90 ERA, which suggests the defense has magnified some of the problems around him.
The team’s defensive numbers back that up. Pittsburgh ranked seventh in Outs Above Average at +18 last season and sits 22nd at -13 this year. The club’s BABIP has climbed from .281 to .298, and more grounders are slipping through the infield.
That’s a reversal from his first two seasons, when his actual ERAs were better than his expected numbers. In 2024, he finished with a 1.96 ERA and a 2.50 xERA. In 2025, he posted a 1.97 ERA with a 2.65 xERA.
The encouraging part for Pittsburgh is that Skenes still looks like an elite pitcher in plenty of ways. His 24% K-BB% is excellent, and his 3.6 fWAR ranks sixth among all pitchers. But he’s gone from extraordinary to merely very, very good in a few key spots, and at this level, that’s enough to change the shape of a season.
Baseball doesn’t give much margin for drift. A little less velocity, a little less command, a few more balls in the air, a weaker defense behind you - those small shifts add up fast.
The upside is just as clear. Nothing here points to a broken pitcher.
Small problems can be fixed with small adjustments. And for a Pirates team trying to stay in the race, getting the sub-2.00 ERA version of Skenes back over the final two months would matter more than almost anything else, even after the bullpen overhaul at the Deadline.
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