The Pirates have seen this kind of arc before, and that’s what makes Esmerlyn Valdez’s rookie year worth a hard look. A young outfielder gets pushed into the majors because the big-league club needs help, shows real pop right away, and then the strikeouts start swallowing the production.
That was the path Jack Suwinski took in Pittsburgh. Now Valdez has put the Pirates in a familiar spot after his 2026 debut.
Valdez reached the majors in May after Ryan O'Hearn's injury, arriving with only 46 games at Triple-A Indianapolis under his belt. At 22, he had already crushed minor-league pitching, but that kind of bat force doesn’t automatically translate into instant major-league survival.
For a while, it looked like the Pirates had nailed the move. In June, Valdez hit .406 with four home runs and a 1.378 OPS.
He followed that with eight more homers in July and earned National League Rookie of the Month honors. Then the league adjusted, and the numbers came down fast.
Before the All-Star break, Valdez was batting .309 with a 1.084 OPS. After it, he slashed .184/.330/.381.
The strikeouts piled up in a hurry, too: 70 in 182 plate appearances in the second half, including 40 strikeouts in 95 plate appearances in August. That worked out to a 42.1% strikeout rate in August, a rough number for a player Pittsburgh may eventually need in the middle of the order.
Even with the late-season slide, Valdez still finished his injury-shortened rookie year with 17 home runs and an .855 OPS in 72 games. On the surface, that’s the kind of line that gets attention. But it doesn’t tell the whole story.
Suwinski’s career offers the cautionary tale. He reached Pittsburgh in April 2022 straight from Double-A Altoona, called up because injuries and COVID-related absences left the club short. He hit 19 home runs as a rookie, but the shine wore off during a brutal July that eventually sent him back to Triple-A.
The next year, Suwinski seemed to settle in. He launched 26 home runs and posted a .793 OPS in 2023, looking like a real everyday outfielder.
Then the bottom fell out. In 2024, he hit .182 with a .588 OPS.
In 2025, it got even worse: .147 with a .534 OPS. The Pirates designated him for assignment in February 2026.
His power was never the issue. The problem was contact - or the lack of it - and the inability to keep adjusting once pitchers figured him out. That’s the part Pittsburgh can’t ignore when it looks at Valdez.
Valdez is not Suwinski. He’s younger, he brings real raw power, and he’s already shown he can take walks. Even his on-base numbers in the second half suggest he wasn’t completely lost at the plate despite the drop in batting average.
Still, the parallels are strong enough to matter. The Pirates needed Valdez in 2026, especially with injuries complicating the lineup and postseason hopes still alive.
But that doesn’t erase the possibility that he would have benefited from more time in Indianapolis sharpening his game against better pitching. It also doesn’t mean another stop in Triple-A in 2027 should be ruled out.
Pittsburgh can’t let the home run total blind it to the bigger picture. The organization has already watched one promising young slugger get swallowed up by swing-and-miss issues after being rushed to the majors. Valdez has given the Pirates plenty to like, but Suwinski’s collapse is the reminder that development still matters more than short-term convenience.
In Other News...
Pirates Prospect Pipeline Suddenly Has A Problem Fans Can't Ignore
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Zander Mueths path has become even harder to chart. Injuries have interrupted his development and limited the innings he has been able to stack, which matters in a system that needs help from more than just its headliners. When a prospect group starts losing momentum in both performance and availability, it changes the conversation quickly, and for the Pirates, that leaves one of the more important questions in the organization still hanging over the rest of the season. [Read more 🡒]
Pirates May Have Found The Buy-Low Bullpen Arm They Need
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Erceg still offers traits Pittsburgh would value, even with some recent rough patches clouding the picture. The real question is whether the Royals would even entertain moving him, because if they do, the Pirates could see a reliever with upside and team control as a fit for a bullpen that needs more reliable late-inning answers. [Read more 🡒]
Pirates Fixed Brandon Lowe Now Fans Fear What Comes Next
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The bigger question now is whether the Pirates get to keep any of that. Lowes improved glove and career-best bat made him one of the most valuable players on the roster, but he is heading toward free agency at a time when Pittsburgh already has reason to worry about what comes next. For a team that finally unlocked something special in him, the difficult part may be making sure the payoff lasts beyond one season. [Read more 🡒]