Bryan Reynolds’ 2026 season looked, at first glance, like another step backward in the power department. He finished with 17 home runs, and for a Pirates lineup that needed steady production, that number was impossible to ignore.
But the raw total may not have told the whole story.
A new Ballpark Pal statistic labeled Reynolds the unluckiest home run hitter in Major League Baseball in 2026, estimating that he lost 8.2 homers because of ballpark dimensions and weather conditions. That was the biggest negative impact estimate of any hitter in the sport. Put another way, his 17-homer year could have looked more like a 25-homer season in a more favorable setting.
That estimate is still just a model, not a promise that every warning-track drive would have left the yard somewhere else. Even so, it gives the Pirates something real to chew on: whether Reynolds actually lost power, or whether the environment around him kept hiding it.
The numbers beyond the home run total back up that argument. Reynolds hit .261/.365/.424 in 2026 with a .789 OPS, 72 RBI and an MLB-leading 40 doubles. His 17 homers were only one more than he managed in 2025, but almost everything else in his offensive profile moved in the right direction.
His batting average rose from .245 to .261. His on-base percentage jumped from .318 to .365.
His OPS climbed nearly 70 points. He also posted an 11.8% barrel rate, the best of his major league career, along with a 48.5% hard-hit rate that was another personal best.
His average exit velocity sat at 91.1 mph, essentially unchanged from the previous season.
That combination matters. Those aren’t the marks of a hitter who suddenly stopped driving the ball. Add in the 40 doubles, and it becomes pretty clear that Reynolds was still punishing baseballs even when they weren’t clearing fences.
PNC Park may be part of the reason.
The ballpark has long made things difficult for hitters, and Reynolds’ switch-hitting profile doesn’t erase that problem. From the left side, he has to deal with the 21-foot Roberto Clemente Wall in right field. From the right side, deep left-center brings its own challenge.
MLB’s Statcast ballpark projections paint the same picture. Under those calculations, Reynolds would have ended up with just 14 home runs if every batted ball had been hit at PNC Park.
At Wrigley Field, that number would have climbed to 28. Those projections are separate from Ballpark Pal’s weather-adjusted estimate, but they point in the same direction: where Reynolds plays matters a lot.
None of that wipes away the slump that hit after the break. Reynolds had a .877 OPS in the first half, then dropped to .659 after the All-Star break and hit only three home runs the rest of the way. That decline was real, and Pittsburgh has every reason to dig into why it happened when the lineup needed him most.
Still, there’s a difference between a player going through a rough stretch and one whose skill level is actually slipping. Reynolds’ improved plate discipline, career-best contact quality and league-leading doubles total suggest the Pirates should be careful before treating his home run total as proof of decline.
That distinction matters even more because Pittsburgh committed $106.75 million to Reynolds through 2030, with a club option for 2031. The Pirates need him to stay productive in the middle of the order, not just next year but for years after that.
And there’s a bigger takeaway here for the franchise as a whole. If the Pirates know their home park suppresses some of their best hitter’s power, they can’t keep building an offense that leans so heavily on him to carry it. Reynolds’ 2026 line should give them reason for cautious optimism about his future, but it also underscores a larger problem they still need to fix.
Reynolds may have been much better than the home run total suggested. The Pirates, though, still have to build a lineup that can survive the park they call home.
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For a pitcher whose early success was built on dominance, the challenge was never just about surviving a down year, but about proving he could adjust when hitters and his own body gave him less margin for error. By seasons end, there were signs of progress in that effort, including a second straight 200-strikeout season, a reminder that even amid the dip, Skenes was still finding ways to miss bats while he searched for the next version of himself. [Read more 🡒]