For a long time, the Pittsburgh Pirates’ flaw was easy to spot: not enough offense, not enough timely hitting, not enough runs. But with the Milwaukee Brewers now one victory from a World Series championship after Monday’s 10-1 rout of the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 3, a different weakness has come into focus for Pittsburgh.
It’s not the bats. It’s the pitching.
That’s a harsh reality for a franchise that has spent years trying to build around arm talent. Yet the numbers from the regular season tell a clear story.
Milwaukee won 103 games in 2026, a massive 21 more than Pittsburgh’s 82, but the gap on offense was relatively modest. The Brewers scored 832 runs, while the Pirates scored 767.
That’s only 65 runs over 162 games.
The real separation came on the mound. Milwaukee gave up just 618 runs all season.
Pittsburgh allowed 739. That 121-run difference was nearly double the margin between the two clubs on offense.
The Brewers finished at plus-214 in run differential. The Pirates ended at plus-28.
Pittsburgh did make real progress at the plate. After finishing dead last in Major League Baseball with 583 runs scored in 2025, the Pirates jumped all the way to 767 in 2026, which ranked sixth in baseball. Brandon Lowe and Ryan O’Hearn were key additions in that turnaround, helping turn a lineup that had been a liability into one that could hang with postseason-caliber teams.
But the other side of the equation slipped badly.
The Pirates’ starting rotation posted a 3.71 ERA in 2025, tied for sixth in MLB. In 2026, that number rose to 4.23, dropping Pittsburgh into a tie for 15th.
Mitch Keller had a rough year, finishing with a 5.29 ERA in 22 starts. Even Paul Skenes, the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner, took a step back, with his ERA climbing from 1.97 in 2025 to 3.82 in 2026.
There were still reasons for hope. Skenes remained above average, Braxton Ashcraft emerged, Jared Jones had an impressive September and Bubba Chandler improved late in the season. But promise is not the same thing as results, and the Pirates were counting on their rotation to be the backbone of the team.
Instead, the offense had to carry more of the load than expected, and the run prevention behind it wasn’t nearly good enough.
Milwaukee has shown the kind of complete team the Pirates are still chasing. It’s not just about scoring.
It’s about suppressing runs, defending well and getting strong pitching even when the lineup isn’t lighting up the scoreboard. Monday was another example, with rookie Robert Gasser throwing six scoreless innings and allowing just one hit against Tampa Bay.
That kind of outing buys a team a huge cushion. It also shows the standard Pittsburgh needs to reach.
The Pirates don’t necessarily need to blow up their rotation. Skenes, Jones, Ashcraft and Chandler give them an enviable young core.
But they do need more consistency from that group, better depth behind it and a bullpen that can hold up in meaningful spots. That responsibility lands with Ben Cherington.
Pittsburgh did address its offensive problems last offseason, and the results were encouraging. But the pitching regression created a new issue, and it’s one the club can’t ignore if it wants to close the gap with Milwaukee.
The Brewers didn’t pull away simply because they had the better lineup. They separated themselves in the very areas where the Pirates were supposed to be strongest.
In Other News...
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It also fits a larger pattern that has made Tampa Bay so difficult to keep pace with. The Rays have built a reputation for targeting talent in trades and then getting more out of it, while the Pirates have spent the years since trying to sort through the fallout of roster decisions that have not always aged well. For Pittsburgh, the Archer trade remains a painful example of how one big swing can echo for a long time. [Read more 🡒]
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The proposal is still part of collective bargaining talks and nothing is final yet, but the direction of the discussion matters for a team like the Pirates. A format that could alter opponent selection in the first round, then stretch a later series even longer, would reward depth and flexibility in ways that expose any bullpen shortfall. For Pittsburgh, the question is not just whether it can get back to the postseason, but whether it would be equipped for whatever version of October baseball arrives next. [Read more 🡒]
Pirates Rotation Suddenly Hinges On Mitch Kellers Long Road Back
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The club is expecting Keller to resume throwing late in the offseason and eventually rejoin the rotation, though the path back is the story now. Young outfielder Esmerlyn Valdez also finished the year on the injured list with a hamstring strain, but he says he is healthy and plans to sharpen up in the Dominican Winter League before the next season begins. [Read more 🡒]