As the Pirates look ahead to 2027, Brandon Lowe sits near the top of the list of players they should try to keep. He was Pittsburgh’s best player, and he also brings the kind of veteran presence this roster needs. Handing him a qualifying offer would be the obvious move.
The catch is that Lowe may be good enough now to say no.
A qualifying offer would come in at roughly $23 million, which is almost as much as Lowe has made across his previous six seasons combined. After a breakout 2026, he has boosted his value enough that a multi-year contract could top that figure on an annual basis. If another team is willing to go there, Lowe could walk away from Pittsburgh’s offer and still land a bigger payday.
That would not necessarily be a loss for the Pirates.
If Lowe declines and signs elsewhere, Pittsburgh would be in line for a compensatory draft pick. And if the Pirates want a reminder that those picks can matter, they only need to look at the Reds.
In 2021, Cincinnati gave Nick Castellanos a qualifying offer. He rejected it and signed a five-year, $100 million deal with the Phillies, which brought the Reds the No. 32 pick in the 2022 draft.
Cincinnati used that selection on Sal Stewart, who signed below slot value and is now a favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award. Castellanos, by comparison, played only 39 games for the Padres this season after a messy split with Philadelphia.
Of course, those picks are not a sure thing. The Pirates know that too.
The last time they issued a qualifying offer, they were trying to keep catcher Russell Martin, who ended up with the Blue Jays. Pittsburgh used the compensation pick on Ke’Bryan Hayes, who has turned into one of the worst hitters in the history of baseball.
Still, there are enough examples to keep some faith in the process. Aaron Judge, Shane McClanahan, Will Smith, Jack Flaherty, and others have emerged from the compensation round into major-league careers of real significance. So if Lowe does leave, the Pirates could still find a path to benefit.
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