The Atlanta Falcons have made their call for Week 1, and it comes with a ripple effect in the betting market. Tua Tagovailoa will start Sunday’s opener in Pittsburgh against the Steelers, with Michael Penix Jr. still working his way back from the torn ACL he suffered last November.
Penix was not cleared for 11-on-11 work until Aug. 22, and Atlanta is opting not to rush him back. That leaves Tagovailoa, a veteran former first-round pick, to handle the early-season pressure despite a preseason that did not exactly turn heads.
The move has already nudged the Week 1 line. Pittsburgh opened as a three-point favorite and has moved to 3.5-point favorites heading into kickoff. Tagovailoa’s promotion may have pushed that number by half a point, though Atlanta is still -118 to cover the spread on Sunday.
There’s still a chance the spread settles back at three, but the early betting lean is clearly on Pittsburgh. At DraftKings, 78 percent of moneyline bets and 58 percent of spread bets are backing the Steelers. That’s not hard to understand: Pittsburgh was a playoff team in the 2025 season and brings a steadier setup with Aaron Rodgers back at quarterback.
Tagovailoa’s own recent track record is a big reason the market has cooled on Atlanta. In the 2025 season, he threw for 2,660 yards, 20 touchdowns and 15 interceptions while going 6-8 in 14 starts for Miami, which ultimately moved on from the former top-five pick. He has completed a full 17-game season only once in his NFL career, and that’s part of why Penix could still see the field early in the 2026 season.
The Falcons’ broader outlook is modest, too. They’re projected to win 7.5 games in 2026, with the UNDER set at -140. If Tagovailoa gets rolling quickly, Atlanta could hang around in the NFC South, but the betting market is clearly skeptical after what it saw from him last year.
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