When Penn State made the high-stakes decision to part ways with longtime head coach James Franklin back on October 12, the logic was straightforward: act early, secure a top-tier replacement, and stabilize the 2026 recruiting class before it drifted off course. Instead, nearly two months later, that class has unraveled completely - and in real time, during the most important week of the recruiting calendar.
As the early signing period opened on Wednesday, Penn State’s 2026 class had dwindled to just four commitments. Then, before lunch, it lost four-star in-state safety Matt Sieg to West Virginia. The class, once positioned comfortably inside the national top 20, is now hanging by a thread - and it’s not out of the question that it could hit zero by week’s end.
This isn’t just a setback. It’s a collapse.
“Other coaches are looking around going, what is going on over there?” said 247Sports recruiting analyst Brian Dohn during Signing Day coverage.
“Penn State will come back from it because it’s Penn State - it’s the dominant program in the region. But in the short term?
Embarrassing is putting it mildly.”
Let’s be clear: this is a program that, not long ago, was knocking on the door of the College Football Playoff. Now it’s scrambling to keep its recruiting class from vanishing entirely.
Since Franklin’s dismissal, 22 commitments have walked away from the 2026 class. That’s not a typo.
Twenty-two. A group that once had the makings of a foundational class has plummeted to No. 139 in the 247Sports Composite Team Rankings - surrounded by FCS programs - simply because there’s almost no one left.
And it gets worse: nine of those decommits have already flipped to Virginia Tech, where Franklin has wasted no time jumpstarting his new era in Blacksburg.
That group following Franklin includes:
- 4-star RB Messiah Mickens (90)
- 3-star WR Davion Brown (89)
- 3-star IOL Benjamin Eziuka (89)
- 3-star LB Tyson Harley (89)
- 3-star QB Troy Huhn (89)
- 3-star TE Pierce Petersohn (89)
- 3-star OT Marlen Bright (88)
- 3-star OT Roseby Lubintus (88)
- 3-star LB Mathieu Lamah (87)
(247Sports ratings in parentheses)
Penn State had eight four-star commitments when Franklin was let go. Most are gone.
Others are wavering. The talent drain is undeniable, and the optics aren’t helping.
While Penn State continues its coaching search, other programs - including Franklin’s new one - are capitalizing on the chaos.
Just take a look at where some of these former Penn State commits are headed:
| Name | Position | 247Sports Rating | Committed to |
|---|
| Matt Sieg | S | 95 | West Virginia | | Terry Wiggins | LB | 94 | Penn State (for now) |
| Kevin Brown | OT | 94 | West Virginia | | Jackson Ford | Edge | 91 | Penn State (for now) |
| Alexander Haskell | DL | 90 | Syracuse | | Elijah Littlejohn | LB | 90 | Georgia |
| Messiah Mickens | RB | 90 | Virginia Tech | | Jahsiear Rogers | WR | 90 | Oklahoma |
Franklin’s recruiting classes weren’t always perfect, but they were consistent. He delivered top-20 groups year after year, giving the program a reliable floor and enough talent to compete at a high level. That floor vanished the moment he walked out the door.
The thinking behind the October move was to get ahead of the coaching carousel - to create clarity and gain momentum. Instead, Penn State created a vacuum.
Top coaching targets signed extensions elsewhere, and as the search dragged on, recruits made their own decisions. Rivals didn’t wait around.
They saw an opening and attacked - none more effectively than Franklin himself.
One possible stabilizer remains: Terry Smith.
Inside the program, there’s growing support for interim head coach Terry Smith, who helped guide the team to three straight wins and bowl eligibility. Veterans like linebacker Tony Rojas have publicly backed Smith, calling for the interim tag to be removed. That kind of locker room support matters - especially when the rest of the program is in flux.
But as of now, Smith remains in limbo. Athletic director Pat Kraft is still conducting the search, and without a permanent voice in the room, recruits are making decisions without Penn State in the picture.
Dohn suggested that if Sieg believed Smith had a real shot at the full-time job, he might have stayed committed. That’s the kind of uncertainty that’s costing the program real talent.
This situation is a harsh reminder of how unforgiving modern recruiting can be. If you fire a coach, you need a plan. Penn State didn’t have one ready - and the fallout was immediate.
And it’s not just about the 2026 class anymore. With the roster now bracing for potential portal exits, the next head coach won’t just be building a class - they’ll be rebuilding a program. Dohn noted that Kraft may need to spend big in the transfer portal to stop the bleeding, but we’ve seen how portal-heavy rebuilds can go sideways fast.
For a program that was a few plays away from the national title conversation just a year ago, this was supposed to be a reset. Instead, it’s become a full-blown roster crisis.
The line between a controlled reboot and an uncontrolled collapse? Thinner than anyone in Happy Valley probably realized.
Penn State needed to gain ground. Instead, they’re watching it disappear beneath their feet.